FXUS63 KMPX 101129
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
529 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COLDEST PART OF THE THIS BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH. ONE JUST ABOUT TO MOVE
INTO WESTERN WI AND ANOTHER OVER WESTERN ND. THE IDEA OF A FEW
FLURRIES WITH THE SECOND WAVE STILL LOOKS GOOD..PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA. JUST A FEW SITES AT WIND CHILL ADVSY CRITERIA TO OUR
WEST BUT WIND SPEEDS COMING DOWN. WILL KEEP THE ADVSY GOING UNTIL
10 AM. WITH SOME CLOUDS COMING BACK INTO THE AREA...WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NAM GUIDANCE VALUES AND MAYBE A LITTLE LOWER IN SPOTS.
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE AGAIN AS WELL.

SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT ON A MODERATING TREND
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. THERE COULD BE RISING TEMPS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
NOT PUT TOO MUCH DETAIL IN HOURLIES AT THIS POINT. THERE A COUPLE OF
SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TYPE
PRECIP BUT WILL KEEP IT SNOW FOR NOW. RAISED POPS A LITTLE WITH
THE MREF PLUMES SHOWING A REASONABLE SIGNAL OF LIGHT QPF. HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS SOME FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE AMONG GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS NOT VERY HIGH. THE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES IS
IN THE HIGHEST AREA OF VARIABILITY...KIND OF A BATTLE GROUND FOR
POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AIR. IT DOES SEEM LIKE
ANOTHER PLUNGE MAY OCCUR ABOUT TUESDAY BEHIND PACIFIC SYSTEMS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DEAL WITH THE ONSET OF LOWER CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BY 15/18Z. STILL ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE FIRST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET ABV SFC TO CONSIDER SCATTERED 1500/2500'
CLOUDS...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC AND HAVE CEILINGS
AOA 3500' FOR THE MOST PART. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO SEE HOW
UPSTREAM CEILINGS ACROSS ND/SD MODIFY AS THE MOVE INTO WESTERN MN
BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST/SW AND
UNDER 15 KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND RWF.
..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-
     BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
     LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MORRISON-
     NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
     STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW 
     MEDICINE.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/JLT