FXUS64 KBMX 251202
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
602 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED INTO GEORGIA AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE LIFTS OUT OF ALABAMA. A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS WEST ALABAMA IS ALONG COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES DROP
OFF QUICKLY INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND ONCE AGAIN WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH 3 PM TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-59. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS NEAR JACKSON
MISSISSIPPI WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
THIS MORNING. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS STILL
INDICATE THE LIGHT RAIN MAY BECOME MIXED WITH OR CHANGE-OVER TO
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

CLOUDS EXTEND BACK TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA STATE LINE...BUT THE
BACK EDGE IS SHIFTING RAPIDLY EASTWARD...SO CLEARING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ACROSS WEST ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. BROAD UPPER
TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP AREA IN A CHILLY
AIR MASS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A WEAK GULF
LOW TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND SPREAD MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTH
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. INTRODUCED SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-85.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE SHORT WAVE TROF THAT PRODUCES THE GULF LOW WILL BRING A RE-
ENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER AIR FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORT WAVE
TROF LIFTS INTO ATLANTIC AND NEXT UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING MODERATING
TEMPERATURES TO AREA AND PROBABLY RAIN BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CEILINGS IN WAKE OF LIFTING UPPER LOW OVER OVER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN BEGIN
LIFTING AND CLEARING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. VFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...SOME WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TCL,
BHM, EET AND ANB THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DROP OFF TO NEAR
CALM BY 00Z.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY THRU 3 PM TODAY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59.

&&

$$

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