FXUS63 KDDC 032124
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
324 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM, THUS
MAJORITY OF EFFORT FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURE FORECASTING.
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD ~1040MB HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES DOMINATING THE WEATHER OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH ITS MAIN AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. HAVE SEEN A SMALL CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP OVER NORTH AND WEST
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL DISAPPEAR IMMEDIATELY AFTER
SUNSET, IF NOT SOONER. THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. CLEAR SKIES, DECREASING SFC WINDS, AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SFC HIGH WILL PROVIDE FOR AN EVEN COLDER NIGHT FOR
WEST KANSAS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TOMORROW WILL FEATURE PRIMARILY SUNSHINE BUT WITH SUCH A COLD START,
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN. HOWEVER, AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES
IN TO OUR SOUTH, WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST AND THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL PROBABLY HELP OUR TEMPS EXCEED THE HIGHS OF TODAY BY A FEW
DEGREES. ANOTHER CLEAR, COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR FRI NIGHT WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. A COLD AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
SATURDAY WITH A SECONDARY, SHALLOW ARCTIC SURGE HEADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS, AS LEE TROFING DEVELOPS OVER
EASTERN CO, SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER KANSAS. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR A WARMUP ON SAT, JUST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT
WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE 40S. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO
HOW EASILY THIS COLD AIR MAY BE ERODED, BUT AM LEANING TOWARD AT
LEAST A BRIEF PUSH BACK OF THE COLD AIR SAT AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY. SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE
SAT, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE FAR WESTERN KANSAS AS
THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST CONUS. -WRIGHT
DAYS 3-7...
INTERESTING WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED WITH GREAT CHALLENGE IN THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THERE WILL BE TWO SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WEATHER: SYSTEM
ONE BEING SUNDAY...AND A POTENTIALLY HIGHER IMPACT STORM SYSTEM
TUESDAY.
ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...JUST AS THE
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE COLORADO ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW WILL
FORM ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY SUNDAY EVENING. NORTH OF THIS LOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IMPACTING CENTRAL
KANSAS AS MOISTURE BECOMES INVOLVED WITH THE LOW. WILL BE
INCREASING POPS TO CHANCE 30 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
DDC FA. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY EXIT THE AREA WITH THE BRUNT OF
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ENCOMPASSING SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOMES EXTREMELY CHALLENGING.
THE NEXT MUCH LARGER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
WEST...HOWEVER THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY A
HUGE ROLE IN HOW THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST
PANS OUT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTION WITH THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION...TAKING THE SURFACE LOW
FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
ARKLATEX REGION...KEEPING SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS WELL INTO THE FRIGID
ARCTIC AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT ESCAPING THE LOWER TO
MID 20S...AND SUBSTANTIAL LIFT AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
THE ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO BE MUCH LESS DEVELOPED
REGARDING THIS TUESDAY SYSTEM...TRACKING THE MID LEVEL VORT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN A MORE ZONAL
CONFIGURATION. THAT SAID...THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...BUT FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM
EASTERN COLORADO TO ALONG THE OK-KS BORDER. THE SNOWSTORM FROM THE
ECMWF PERSPECTIVE WOULD OCCUR FROM THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA...NOT SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE 12Z CANADIAN GEM...IS MORE OR
LESS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO...WHICH AT THIS POINT IS PROBABLY
THE BEST FORECAST. WILL GO AHEAD AN INCREASE POPS JUST A LITTLE BIT
TO 40 PERCENT TUESDAY...AS EVEN THE "MIDDLE GROUND" CANADIAN
SOLUTION WOULD GIVE MOST OF THE DDC FA AT LEAST SOME WINTRY
PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY NORTH).
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...AS WINDS WILL MORE OR
LESS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH HOWEVER AT OR BELOW 12 KNOTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 9 35 14 44 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 6 35 12 44 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 7 35 13 46 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 8 36 13 46 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 8 35 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
P28 10 37 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN34/25/25
