FXUS62 KTBW 080812
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES THIS MORNING SO WILL USE A BLEND DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. CURRENTLY AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
FOG ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THESE
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING UNTIL MIXING TAKES
PLACE. THEREAFTER A WARM FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
SHIFTS EAST AND A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH A WARM AND RATHER MUGGY DAY
ON TAP WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
INCREASING MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS (POPS AROUND 20%) OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES DURING
THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL SUPPORT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS
NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THE MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE ON
WEDNESDAY THEN WILL SLOW DOWN FURTHER AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT
SO WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE CATEGORY POPS (30-40 PERCENT RANGE) FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
SOME 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A
FRONT STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE
HIGH CENTER TO THE NORTH SHIFTS ENE OFFSHORE OF VA. THE COLD FRONT
WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN
LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY. SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT THE UPPER
LEVELS WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE MOISTURE FROM THE MEANDERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE ADDED UPPER ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP 20-40
PERCENT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS. ISOLATED LOCATIONS ARE GETTING TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12-14Z AND THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH AROUND 16Z TO NEAR VFR CONDITIONS AND THEN
REMAIN AT VFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KNOT
RANGE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO
THE NORTH SHIFTS EAST AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD. TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE AS
THEY BECOME SOUTHWEST AHEAD A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST DURING THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH BRIDGES ACROSS IT. DURING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS AS THEY QUICKLY VEER FROM
EAST TO SOUTHWEST AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WITHIN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK WITH NO FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 81 69 79 64 / 10 10 30 30
FMY 84 70 83 67 / 10 10 20 30
GIF 84 69 84 63 / 10 10 30 30
SRQ 83 67 81 66 / 10 10 30 30
BKV 82 66 81 61 / 10 10 30 40
SPG 80 69 80 66 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
