FXUS63 KSGF 110540
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1140 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND SWITCHED TO WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS TO THE EAST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE UP AND OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR MASS TO THE
EAST. AS A RESULT...SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRIZZLE.

KARDELL

&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AS SOMEWHAT ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF
THE LOWER 48. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR A GOOD
PRECIPITATION EVENT...HOWEVER SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW DIFFERENCES BY
MIDWEEK AS GFS DIGS A DEEPER SYSTEM AN THUS BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS MONDAY NIGHT THAN THE ECMWF DOES. AM LEANING MORE
TOWARDS THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND
HAVE TRENDED THE GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

WHILE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL IMPACT THE REGION VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
ALLOWING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$