FXUS62 KCAE 061954
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
254 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF THE COAST INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVER THE AREA. DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 30 MOST AREAS. WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS
TONIGHT...WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME ON MONDAY...AND BEGIN
MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN
WEAK AND OUT OF THE NORTH INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TREND OF SHOWING INCREASING MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN COUNTIES. MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE DRY. THEN TUESDAY WILL BEGIN DRY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPS TO REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL POPS. MODELS
SHOWING GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT SITUATION SETTING UP OVER TOP OF
SURFACE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT
FROM THE SOUTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OF AREA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH COLD FRONT STILL OFF TO THE WEST AT THAT POINT.
COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...COULD SEE ISOLATED
THUNDER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE ON FORECAST AT THIS TIME THOUGH.
BEHIND THE FRONT...DRY WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES INTO SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TODAY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT...AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE...BOTH THE
NAM/GFS DEVELOP SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO MON. FOR NOW
WENT WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE NAM AS COASTAL TROF AND LOOKS A BIT
OVERDONE ON GFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MON
NIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
