FXUS63 KFGF 091040
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
440 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HEADLINES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST 
SURFACE ANALYSIS...THE AREA IS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH A HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NW AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE 
SE...NEAR THE S END OF LK MI. WHEN COMPARING THE MODELS...THE MODELS 
ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SO ENDED UP LEANING TOWARD THE GFS 
SOLUTION FOR THE FORECAST. 

THE AREA OF -SN SHOWN ON KMVX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S AND E TODAY 
AND WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT DOES SO. ONLY EXPECT SOME -SN TO LINGER IN 
PARTS OF NW MN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH REBUILDS INTO THE 
N PLAINS. WITH THE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GREATER THAN 5 MPH 
THROUGH THE DAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND WITH BELOW ZERO 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS FROM 25 TO 40 BELOW 
ZERO IN E ND AND PARTS OF NW AND WC MN. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN 
AND THE TEMPERATURES RISE TODAY...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL START TO 
RISE OUT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS...KEEPING THE WIND CHILL 
ADVISORY UNTIL NOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP 
AN EYE ON WIND SPEEDS TODAY TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER WIND CHILL 
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. 

THE UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING REINFORCING SHOTS OF 
COLD AIR TO THE N PLAINS...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 
NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES...BUT 
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. 

THE MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH A VARIETY OF 
SOLUTIONS NOW POSSIBLE. THUS...HAVE KEPT FORECAST CONTINUITY...WITH 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A CHC FOR SOME -SN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR ALL THE AREA EXCEPT KFAR
AND KBJI...WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE ANTICIPATED...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING DUE TO -SN. WINDS TO CONTINUE FROM THE NW
FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS...EXCEPT FOR AT KFAR WHERE
15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
MORNING. A SLOW DIMINISHING OF THE WIND IS EXPECTED BY 00Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
     024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

&&

$$
NG