FXUS63 KDLH 262007
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
207 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE
EXPCT CIGS BL OVC30 ACROSS MN NRN MN WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL PROVIDE MORE -SN WITH VSBYS BLO 1SM. IN WIS...A BIT
DRIER AIR WILL GIVE PERIOD OF BKN MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LAST
THRU THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN AGAIN LATE TNT/EARLY
MORNING ABOUT 10Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FOCUS ON COLD FRONT THAT WILL ROTATE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE FA TODAY. AT 4 AM THE FRONT HAD REACHED A LINE FROM
HINCKLEY...TO HAYWARD AND PARK FALLS. NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND
SNOW. FURTHER NORTH OVER THE IRON RANGE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 20S WITH WDSPRD SN. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN IN A ZONE OF DECENT
FORCING TODAY...AND CAN EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF SN
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE, NEW SN AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
1-2 INCHES. DOWNGRADED THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OVER THE MN ZONES TODAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST WSW FOR MORE DETAILS.
EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING A GLANCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...BUT IT WILL
EFFECTIVELY KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO A MORE NORMAL LEVEL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. H85 TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C AT BRD BY 00Z TUESDAY
AND -17C IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALREADY MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AT H85 BY 12Z TUESDAY AS A FLATTENING
NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION. THE GFS TRIES TO PHASE ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS...BUT THE ECMWF TRIES TO MAINTAIN MORE
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT WITH EACH SHORTWAVE. GRADUALLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING A SHORTWAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT OVERALL
IT SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 33 16 25 11 / 90 40 20 10
INL 28 18 26 8 / 90 60 30 20
BRD 30 14 26 10 / 90 60 20 10
HYR 22 9 26 13 / 40 30 30 20
ASX 29 13 29 17 / 70 50 50 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
BERDES/CLC/CLC
