FXUS61 KGYX 241402 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
902 AM EST THU DEC 24 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST
TODAY...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY OVER
EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP IN IT'S WAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
---UPDATED---
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA AT
THE SAME TIME. FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GRADIENT
BEGINS TO SLACKEN LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
WEAK UPSLOPE...THERE SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING A LITTLE
BIT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP THEM REASONABLY CLOSE TO FORECASTED HIGHS. WILL UPDATE
TO MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST...BUT NOTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS FALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND MIDCOAST MAINE IN A REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONTAL ZONE ALONG WITH THE
MAIN SNOW BAND WAS SHIFTING OFFSHORE AS IT TRAVELED SOUTH THIS
MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN A TRACE. PRECIP
WILL LARGELY END ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND
LIFT EXPECT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE WARRANTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER
THE BAYS AND ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO THE LOWER 30S. THESE WINDS SHOULD
COMMENCE LATER THIS MORNING AND END EARLY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST AND
INLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPS REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 30S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. A COLD...DRY AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. LOOKING FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING INTO SOUTHWEST ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL BUT FAR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT BUT ONLY LOOKING FOR LOW
CHANCE POPS BY MORNING IN FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES AS SOME WEAK MID
LEVEL OVER-RUNNING SETS UP OVER THE REGION. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE SO EXPECT LITTLE
IF ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND.
OVER-RUNNING BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED ON SATURDAY AS
OCCLUSION APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EVAPORATIONAL COOLING
AND COLD AIR DAMMING RESULT IN A WINTERY MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW
TO START WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKING QUITE MESSY AS OCCLUSION LIFTS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE OVER-
RUNNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW ON QPF AS BIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/NAM. LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT FREEZING RAIN MAY BE AN ISSUE THOUGH AS COLD AIR
TRAPPED AT THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT IN
INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. COASTAL
AREAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY CREEP ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OCCLUSION LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH MIXED
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER AIR SWEEPS BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE AREA
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. ARCTIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND WAVE WILL SETTLE
INTO NORTHERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING ENHANCING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS MONDAY NIGHT AS ARCTIC FRONT
BLASTS THROUGH THE REGION WITH A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF FLUFF
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SQUALLS. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR THIS MORNING IN STRATUS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP AND LOW CLOUDS MOVE AWAY.
LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY
DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT....IMPROVING LATE SUNDAY. AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN SQUALLS MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT GUSTS IN THE MORNING OF 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WINDS MAY APPROACH MINIMAL GALE SATURDAY NIGHT. GALES
LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...POHL
