FXUS62 KMLB 090140
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...BRIEF COOLDOWN THURSDAY BEHIND NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER TAKING SHAPE IN THE 
SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALREADY HAVING AN AFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA AS LOW 
LEVEL WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE.  THE WARM HUMID AIR MASS OVER 
THE AREA ONLY PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SINCE THE 
FOCUSING MECHANISM THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY WAS GONE. THE SEA BREEZE IS 
USUALLY NOT VERY ACTIVE THIS TIME OF THE YEAR UNLESS THERE IS MORE 
LARGE SCALE FORCING OR IT IS COOL ALOFT...NEITHER OF WHICH WE HAD 
TODAY.  

THE INCREASING WINDS TONIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A 
STRATUS DECK.  HOWEVER...WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
FORECAST TO BE 25-35 KNOTS...DO NOT THINK THAT WE WILL HAVE 
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  CANNOT RULE OUT SOME 
FOG...SO WILL LEAVE PATCHY WORDING IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOUTHERN 
AREAS PROBABLY HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT WHICH 
WILL LEAD TO A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.  THINK THAT THE BOUNDARY 
LAYER FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE 
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...BUT CEILINGS COULD DROP A LITTLE BELOW 
1000 FEET.  

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS ALREADY BLOWING AROUND 15 KNOTS AND WILL 
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH WED. HENCE...CONDITIONS WILL BE 
POOR FOR BOATING IN THE OPEN WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS 
IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS WARRANTED.  FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WARM AIR 
OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...ALONG WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM 
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...SHOULD KEEP THE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FROM 
DETERIORATING GREATLY...BUT AN EXERCISE CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE 
REQUIRED. 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM 
     EST WEDNESDAY FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA 
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM 
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 
     20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH