FXUS64 KLCH 250326
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
926 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WILL BE ISSUING A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REFLECT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER CLEARING THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
BASED ON SFC OBS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REGIONAL 88D DATA. THE
VERY SMALL POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA AND
WILL LAST ONLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES MADE
TO THE GRIDS/ZONES/ADVISORIES THIS EVENING.
HAVE A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS...
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
DISCUSSION...
A BREEZY...CLOUDY...AND COOL NIGHT IS ON TAP IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN TANDEM
WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE WINDS AND LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...BUT MORNING LOWS
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK PLUS OR MINUS A COUPLE OF DEGREES STILL
LOOKS ON TARGET.
A FEW SITES ALONG THE COAST...MOST NOTABLY KBPT...HAVE GUSTED TO
OR IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET THE LWY RIDE
UNTIL THE 10 PM EXPIRATION W/ FCST MDLS SHOWING THE STRONGEST LL
WINDS YET TO COME.
CHRISTMAS DAY LOOKS SUNNY BUT COOL...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS SETTLING
DOWN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE AREA UNDERNEATH FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY...WITH THE LOW SUBSEQUENTLY TRACKING TO
THE EAST JUST SOUTH OF OUR MARINE ZONES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
RESULT INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY STRATIFORM RAINS ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END
ON SUNDAY.
FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC...AS
GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH YET ANOTHER GULF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FOR THE TIME BEING...WENT WITH THE 06Z/18Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF...WHICH ALL KEEP THE LOW OFFSHORE.
MARINE...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY...BUT
PICK BACK UP AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 32 50 30 55 37 / 10 0 10 20 40
KBPT 31 50 30 56 37 / 10 0 10 20 30
KAEX 31 48 26 53 30 / 10 0 10 10 20
KLFT 34 50 31 55 39 / 10 0 10 10 40
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...
ORANGE...TYLER.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA
TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20
NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.
&&
$$
