FXUS62 KCAE 252002
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
302 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT WILL
MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME DOMINATE AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AIR
MASS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. MID-LEVEL
DRYING SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT
KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN CHANCE APPEARS VERY LOW. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IS CLOSE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. WIND SHOULD HELP HOLD UP
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD BE COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND AROUND FREEZING
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE NOTED THE COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE DRY RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LOWS WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING WITH A POSSIBLE WAVE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THEN
RETURNING TO MVFR/IFR IN FOG OVERNIGHT. WEDGE CONDITIONS CONTINUE
TO ERODE WITH CLEARING SKIES CURRENTLY ENTERING AGS/DNL AND WILL
REACH CAE/CUB BY 20Z AND OGB BY 21Z. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
RETURN TO VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP. EXPECT MVFR AT CAE/CUB/DNL WITH LOW END MVFR/IFR AT
AGS/OGB. FOG WILL RAPIDLY BURN OFF WITH SUNRISE AND MIXING SHOULD
DISSIPATE THE FOG BY 14Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RESERVOIR RELEASES HAVE PROMPTED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE
FLOODING OF SWAMPLANDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SANTEE DAM IN CLARENDON
COUNTY. THIS FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JL
NEAR TERM...JL
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MP
HYDROLOGY...JL
