FXUS63 KGID 031140
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
540 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009
.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. COLD BUT QUIET AVIATION WEATHER
EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES AROUND TODAY BUT NO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY HOVER BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW
END VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL
BE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...WHICH COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
TOWARDS SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009/
DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND
FLURRIES TODAY...A WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS
SPREADING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES SHOWING UP AT TIMES.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. IN ADDITION MOISTURE WILL ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THE
DENDRITIC LAYER IS NEARLY AT THE SURFACE AND EXPECT THAT THERE MAY
BE SOME FLURRIES SQUEEZED OUT OF THE CLOUDS AS THE SPREAD INTO THE
AREA TODAY. DESPITE THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THERE IS
LITTLE WIDESPREAD LIFT SO FLURRIES SHOULD BE ALL WE SEE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT
THAT THERE MAY BE A FEW FLURRIES ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
THE MOISTURE SLOWLY DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST AND BY
AFTERNOON THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION AND WITH THE DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA AND
THERE IS GOOD WARM ADVECTION BUT STILL EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE COLD SIDE SINCE TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO.
FINALLY ON SATURDAY THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WARMER
AIR ALOFT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. STILL DO NOT EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SIGNIFICANTLY BUT SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND ANOTHER UPPER
LOW STARTS TO AFFECT THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS BUT THEY SEEM TO BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION STARTING SOMETIME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE SNOW. LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER
WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. THEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
