FXUS65 KREV 081205
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
400 AM PST TUE DEC 8 2009
.SHORT TERM...
SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS IN DECEMBER MEANS ONE
THING...COLD TEMPERATURES. WITH MUCH OF THE SOLAR INSOLATION TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEING EATEN UP BY THE SNOW RATHER THAN THE GROUND...
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SOME 15-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE...LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AS MUCH AS 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL BE TRICKY AS WEAK ENERGY UNDERCUTS THE
VERY SKINNY RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE GFS MOVES THICKER
CLOUDS (GOOD 500-300 MB MOISTURE) IN FROM 06Z-12Z...WHILE THE EC AND
NAM WOULD HOLD OFF CLOUDS UNTIL MORE LIKE 12Z. THIS WILL MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...I EXPECT LOWS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN
THE FAR WESTERN CWA WITH MUCH LESS OF A RISE EAST DUE TO A LATER
ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK ENERGY WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO CONFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN FAST SOUTHERN CONUS FLOW AND A MASSIVE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...IT WILL TEND TO GET SQUEEZED AND SHEARED
APART AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING
QUITE DISORGANIZED AND IS SHOWING ONLY MEEK QPF IN THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS (WITH THE 03Z SREF ONLY INDICATING A 20% CHANCE OF 0.25" PRECIP
NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THURSDAY NIGHT). STILL...I HAVE MODERATE TO
HIGH POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PER SREF QFP PROGS. IT LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD BE A CLASSIC HIGH POP/LOW QPF SYSTEM. ONE THING SEEMS FAIRLY
CERTAIN...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN BELOW ALL VALLEY FLOORS WITH SUCH
A WEAK SYSTEM AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER THURSDAY SEVERELY INHIBITING
MIXING IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SNYDER
.LONG TERM...
THE NEXT STRONGEST STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND BEGINNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAY STILL BE LOW ENOUGH FOR A
RAIN SNOW MIX. SHOWERS MAY LINGER BUT SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS RIDGING AFFECTS THE WEST COAST AND MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS
THE GREAT BASIN. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW GOING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE RENO CWA BY TUES
AND WED OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO REFLECT A BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR THOSE DAYS. BINGAMAN/PALMER
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS HAVE NOTABLY IMPROVED SINCE STORM SYSTEM MOVED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RENO CWA. VFR CONDS WILL DOMINATE TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLUCTUATING VSBYS AT KTRK.
SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS HAVE CAUSED VSBYS AT KTRK TO GO DOWN TO AROUND
1SM BUT HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BACK UP TO P6SM. CHANCE OF FREEZING FOG
DUE TO THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE DURING
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. JBB
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
