FXUS64 KBMX 040544 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1144 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 945 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009/

BIGGEST STORY THIS EVENING IS THE CLOUDS THAT ARE PERSISTING OVER 
THE CWA.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO HANG ON...AND 
THEN OVER THE TOP OF THOSE CLOUDS...A CIRRUS DECK IS STREAMING IN 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF TOMORROW NIGHTS WEATHER MAKER.

IN REGARDS TO TOMORROW NIGHTS WEATHER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWEAKS 
COMING IN THE FULL FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT.  00Z NAM IS ALREADY 
PAINTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT PICTURE.  ONE INCH TOTALS ARE LOOKING 
LIKE THE EXCEPTION AS THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES MAY STREAM NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS STILL A 
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SNOW FALL IN CENTRAL ALABAMA TOMORROW NIGHT 
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE FACT THAT EVEN WITH SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 33-35 DEGREES FLAKES CAN FALL.  THE ONLY THING THAT 
COULD CHANGE IS THE AMOUNT THAT ACTUALLY STICKS TO THE GROUND.  MORE 
TO COME AFTER THE 00Z GFS AND EURO TRICKLE IN TONIGHT.

SLIGHT DROP OF OVERNIGHT LOWS NEEDED IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES... 
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  UPDATES ON THE WAY.

27

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

JUST AS PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED...MVFR CIGS ARE HANGING TOUGH AND WILL 
BE VERY SLOW TO GO AWAY OVERNIGHT. WHILE HIGH/MID CLOUD COVER WILL 
BE AROUND AFTER LOW CIGS GO AWAY FOR FRI AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. 
LATE NIGHT TOMORROW COULD SEE SOME -SN/-RA IN OBS AT TIMES...BUT OUT 
OF 24HR RANGE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT ANY ONE POINT YET AND 
TIMING IS OF QUESTION...BUT IN ANY RESPECTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.  

08

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

27/08