FXUS63 KEAX 091756
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR UPDATES TO THE GOING FORECAST BUT WENT AHEAD AND
DROPPED THE BLIZZARD WARNING SINCE THE CURRENT IMPACTS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA. FOR AREAS WHERE THE BLIZZARD WAS IN EFFECT A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS.
FELT THIS WAS THE BEST ROUTE TO GO AS WE ARE FLIRTING WITH WIND CHILL
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND WILL LIKELY APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI LATER IN THE DAY.
ALSO... WITH THE STRONG WINDS BLOWING OVER THE HEAVY SNOW AREA
BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND A MILE OR SO. WINDS
WILL START TO EASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES OVER THE AREA WITH THE STORM CONTINUING TO LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THINKING THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX
ENOUGH BY 18Z OR SO THAT WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES THE WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. FOR TONIGHT A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST KANSAS. THIS WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE OVER THICKER SNOW PACK WERE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR. CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST WIND CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -24
MENTIONED SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

CDB

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VIGOROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS WAY EAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW SEEING ONLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES AS STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIFTING NORTH OF
THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS MEET BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO FAR WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS APPROACHING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAIN STRONG AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE FOR NOW AND
MONITOR WINDS/VIS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION
ON ANY EXTENSIONS/CHANGES.

BITTERLY COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED AS BRISK WINDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
THE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG CAA PERSISTS. IN ADDITION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BY TONIGHT WITH THE ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE A SNOW PACK EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET BELOW ZERO
INTO AT LEAST THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-15 TO -20 ACROSS THE SNOW PACK AREAS. MAY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THIS...LETTING
CURRENT HEADLINES RUN ITS COURSE.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ONCE THE LINGERING FLURRIES END TODAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
OVER SNOW PACKED AREAS. NOT CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 3.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE KEEP
CLOUDS FROM COMPLETELY MOVING OUT. BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
VALID PERIOD. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS SHOULD STAY
NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TH REMAINDER OF THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AND
WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

CDB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ102.

&&

$$