FXUS61 KILN 270833
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
333 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT QUICKLY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTROL
THE REGIONS WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BRINGING THE NIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING TODAYS SYSTEMS.
H5 LOW CENTERED OVER ERN LAKE HURON HAS A TROF EXTENDING DOWN INTO
ERN OH. THIS TROF WILL ROTATE E THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW DUMBBELLS EWD INTO NY STATE. FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BE NWLY AT
SFC AND ALOFT...ALLOWING A FLOW OFF LAKE MI. H9 MOISTURE IS
TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION. THIS FLOW WILL GIVE A CHANCE OF A FLURRY
TO THE AREAS FROM W CNTRL OH INTO CNTRL OH THIS MORNING.
SFC RIDGE IS FCST TO WORK UP THE OH VLY TODAY. THIS SHOULD WORK
TO BACK THE WINDS TO MORE WLY AND SHOULD KILL THE FLOW OFF LAKE
MI. AS RIDGE BUILDS E...THE H9 MOISTURE SHOULD BREAK UP...BUT H8
MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. EXPECT THE SW TO GET SOME SUN
LATER TODAY...BUT THE NE WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL TNGT TO LOSE THE
CLOUDS.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS E.
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP FCST LOOKED GOOD. ADDED A DEGREE OR SO IN THE
SW FOR THE SUN...BUT REST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS FA TNGT ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. RIDGE
WILL BE E OF THE FA BY 12Z SAT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WITH SW WINDS A DECENT WARM UP.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 FLOW ZONAL SAT NGT INTO
SUNDAY. ALL BRING A CDFNT INTO THE REGION AS A S/W SWINGS THRU THE
LAKES. UPPED POPS A LITTLE SUN AFTN IN THE NW...BUT STILL LEFT
THEM IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.
WENT A LITTLE WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SAT WITH THE
EXPECTED SUN...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED WITH MOISTURE INCREASING AND DEVELOPING FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SPREAD INTO REGION. MODELS BRINGING BEST RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE OF SOLUTION. SMALL CHC FOR SUN AFTN. LEFT SMALL CHC FOR
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW SHOULD MODELS SLOW A BIT. SHOULD BE RAIN
THROUGH PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE CHANGED ON SYSTEM EVOLVING BY WEDNESDAY AND THURS.
TAKING MORE EASTERN TRACK OF LOW WHICH LEAVES AREA DRY WITH COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON COMING IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL TAKE
ANOTHER LOOK AT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEFORE ISSUANCE OF FCST IF ANY
CHANGES ARE NEEDED. TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY AT OR A LITTLE BELOW
GUIDANCE THROUGH PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING WITH THE MID/UPR LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING TO PULL EAST OF THE REGION. MVFR CLOUDS NEAR
THE BACK EDGE OF THE H9 TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. AREAS OF -SHRA...WITH SOME -RASN
TO MIX IN THROUGH ABOUT 11Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT FROM MVFR TO VFR
FROM ABOUT 13Z IN THE WEST TO NEAR 18-20Z IN THE EAST. WESTERN TAF
LOCATIONS CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO ONLY FEW/SCT250 AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SITES
NEAR TERM...SITES
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JDR
