FXUS63 KFGF 010344
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
918 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIG UPDATES PLANNED WITH THIS EVENING UPDATE. WATCH REMAINS IN 
EFFECT. 

ARCHING HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY EXTEND ACROSS SERN SASKATCHEWAN AND 
NORTH DAKOTA...AHEAD OF AN APROACHING ALBERTA CLIPPER. THIS LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DUG INTO EXTREME NERN MT...AND IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY ALG OR NEAR U.S. HWY 2 INTO GFK THROUGH 
TUESAY MORNING...AND ACROSS NCNTRL MN BY TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT 
FCST EXPECTS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALG AND NORTH 
OF HWY 2 AND SPREADING FROM THE DVL BASIN INTO NERN ND DURING THE 
LATE FORENOON...AND CONTINUING ACROSS NWRN MN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THAT EXPECTED TRACK AND THE INTENSITY OF 
THE SURFACE LOW... WITH THE LATEST 00Z NAM SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY 
TRACK THROUGH FARGO ON TUESDAY. NEW GFS IS TRENDING A BIT MORE 
SOUTHERLY AS WELL...BUT KEEPS THE LOW TRACK THROUGH HILLSBORO...AND 
THE HEAVIEST SNOW STILL ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.  

AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A MAINLY SNOW 
AND BLOWING SNOW EVENT...ALG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. WILL HOLD ON TO THE 
WATCH FOR NOW... AND CONSIDER REPLACING WITH AN ADVISORY OR WARNING 
LATER TONIGHT AS SITUATION BECOMES MORE EVIDENT. 

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY HIGH CLOUDS AND IGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA THIS 
EVENING...WITH INCREASING MID LVL CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOWER 
VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD NERN ND THROUGH 12Z... AND MUCH OF 
NWRN MN BY 18Z. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM 12 
TO 24Z ACROSS THESE AREAS IN RESPONSE TO THE RAPID PASSAGE OF A 
WINTER STORM SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT FROM 
THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TEH PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM ON 
TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/

FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED...THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO LK SUPERIOR...WITH 
THE COLD NW FLOW KEEPING THE CHC FOR -SN AND FLURRIES IN THE AREA. 
ANOTHER 500MB TROF MOVES THROUGH FOR WED NIGHT AND THU...SO KEPT THE 
CHC FOR -SN OR FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST. 

LONG TERM [THU NIGHT - SUN]...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM ARE PCPN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND 
AND DAILY TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES 
BETWEEN THE MODELS...MAINLY STEMMING FROM THE HANDLING OF TROUGH 
ALONG THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST THU AND FRI. THE GFS AND DGEX
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL DIG DEEPER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH WOULD INDICATE SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF PCPN THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS
TROUGHING WITH A CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE AMERICAN NW COAST. LEANED TO
THE DRY ECMWF AND GEM. WHAT SEEMS TO BE MORE CERTAIN ARE COLDER
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT AN INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR EARLY OR DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WORK WEEK...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 0 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004>009-013.

&&

$$
GUST