FXUS64 KOUN 072042
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
STRONG STORM SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL
BRING A MIX OF WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE FA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE/ARE STRUGGLING WITH NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WAKE OF RECENT COLD FRONT. APPEARS MAIN PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL FALL WEST/NORTH AND EAST OF FA...BUT SHOULD SEE AREAS
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NC OKLAHOMA TONIGHT MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW. ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. HAVE HAD
SYSTEMS IN THE PAST THAT HAVE PRODUCED LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BUT
HAVE CAUSED SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. WOULD LIKE TO GIVE SOME
LEAD TIME WITH THE THOUGHT THAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
ON SOME ROADWAYS WITHIN THE ADVISED AREA.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WITH MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. 8H WINDS AROUND
50-60 KTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF FA. ENOUGH CLEARING
AND MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR WINDS TO APPROACH 45-50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. APPEARS BETTER TIMING FOR STRONGER WINDS WILL
BE ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE. WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS FOR WIND
ADVISORIES ETC.
STRONG CAA AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE SINGLE DIGIT
WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF
AREA BY MID EVENING TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD DAY IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD TEMPS
EXPECTED BY THURSDAY MORNING. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. MANY
AREAS MAY SEE THE COLDEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON.
WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
WAVE APPROACHES WITHIN FAST WESTERLY FLOW.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC BUILD "TRUE" ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH CENTER OF 1035 HIGH
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SUNDAY. AGREE WITH DDC THAT THIS
SITUATION HAS MAJOR BUST POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PROBLEM WITH EC MODEL IS HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR IS ERODED. FOR
NOW...WILL TWEAK NUMBERS DOWN TO THE COLDER SIDE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 30 43 21 31 / 60 60 10 0
HOBART OK 29 44 21 35 / 60 40 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 35 52 25 39 / 20 30 10 0
GAGE OK 24 45 12 29 / 60 60 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 30 39 18 27 / 70 80 30 0
DURANT OK 40 47 29 38 / 50 70 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR OKZ014>026-033>036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR OKZ004>013.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
SIX
