FXUS61 KCAR 250350
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1050 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN INTO CANADA SUNDAY WHILE PULLING A
WARM FRONT UP INTO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY
NIGHT THEN ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FOR LATER
MONDAY NIGHT. A ROUND OF BRISK WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTH/MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE DOWNEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S
NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S DOWNEAST. CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST. THE 500 MB RIDGE LINE
MOVES TO THE EAST OF STATE SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE MID WEST WILL BE APPROACHING BEHIND THIS RIDGE. AS WARM
ADVECTION BEGINS SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM EXPECT
OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE REGION. A
TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE
NAM AND GFS FOR POPS...QPF...AND SKY COVER. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW
POINT WILL USE GMOS INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THEN TRANSITION TO
NAM TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE
OFFICE THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF NAM AND GFS RUN ON
FORECAST TEMPERATURE GRIDS. HAVE USED GMOS FOR WINDS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE START OF THE LONG TERM FIND THE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. A PRIMARY LOW OVER HUDSON
BAY...MULTIPLE SECONDARY LOWS EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT RUNS THROUGH WESTERN MAINE. BY 12Z MONDAY THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD
IN. THIS HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO AN NEW LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER
CAPE COD AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MAINE. BY
00Z WEDNESDAY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN. BY 00Z THURSDAY
THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. A NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AROUND THE END OF THE
PERIOD. INTO WESTERN MAINE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD GFS...INTO VT
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ECMWF. LOADED GMOS...ADJUSTED SKY/POP
GRIDS TO CLEAN THEM UP. LOADED NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR...CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR 
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY FRIDAY...WILL
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: FOR WINDS HAVE USED A 50/50 BLEND OF THE
NAM12 AND GFS40. FOR WAVES USED WNA/4. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH
DEVELOPS FROM GULF OF MAINE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER 27/00Z. AT THIS
TIME WNA LOOKS REASONABLE SO NOT CHANGES.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/NORCROSS
MARINE...KHW/MIGNONE/NORCROSS