FXUS63 KFGF 012049
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
249 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ENDING HEADLINES. AFTER
THAT...TIMING OF WAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
THE MAIN CHALLENGES. 12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WITH MINIMAL ERRORS
AND IN DECENT AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND. 

HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW EXISTS FROM GRAND FORKS TO THE BAUDETTE
AREA WITH VSBY 1/4SM IN HEAVIER SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS
PRECIP SHIELD (FROM CROOKSTON-FOSSTON) BEGINNING AS -RASN BEFORE
CHANGING OVER. THIS LIKELY DUE SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLET SCENARIO
BEFORE LAYERS ALOFT SATURATE. MOST REPORTS FROM WHERE SNOW HAS
MOSTLY ENDED ARE 4-5 INCHES. SOUTHERN PORTION OF PRECIP SHIELD
WILL EXPERIENCE LESS SNOWFALL DUE TO INITIAL LIQUID PHASE. THIS
BAND EXPECTED TO EXIT BY EARLY EVENING. WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A MAJOR ISSUE WHERE SNOW HAS FALLEN. CURRENT EXPIRATION OF 6PM
APPEARS REASONABLE. 

CURRENT OBS ACROSS THE SW FA INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND
30 MPH (AT GWINNER). THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WIND ADVISORY
LIKELY TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND
WILL PLAN HOLDING ONTO ENTIRE ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM.

WED-FRI...REGION WILL BE IN DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WITH PERIODIC WAVES
PROVIDING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE THREE DAY PERIOD COULD BE UP TO 4 INCHES
(MOST LIKELY AN INCH OR TWO). PERIOD SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONSIDERING SYNOPTIC SET-UP. THUS...DIURNAL RANGES RATHER MINIMAL
WITH MIN/MAX TEMPS A BIT LOWER EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-MON)...THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM
ARE DAILY TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD APPROACH 0 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THEREFORE...LEANED TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MINIMAL CHANCES OF
SOME FLURRIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT KEPT MOST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST DRY SINCE FLURRIES ARE NEGLIGIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE AT BJI THROUGH MUCH OF TOMORROW MORNING....WHERE AS
GFK/DVL/FAR/TVF SHOULD SEE AN END TO -SN BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SN COULD PERIODICALLY DROP VSBYS AND CIGS TO THE
IFR CATEGORY AT TVF AND BJI AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL IT
PUSHES OFF INTO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS WILL BECOME STEADY
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-
     053.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR 
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026-027-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
     004>009-013>017.

&&

$$
TG/GROCHOCINSKI