FXUS65 KABQ 251020
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MST WED NOV 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS WILL GENERALLY BE THE ONLY FEATURE
OF NOTE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. STRONG
INVERSIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
CHILLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND
CROSS NM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVIATE ON THE EXACT PATH IN WHICH THE UPPER LOW WILL
TAKE TO GET TO NM. AS THE LOW CROSSES NM THOUGH...THE TREND APPEARS
TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN...AS THE GFS/EURO/GEM NOW TAKE THE
CENTER OF THE LOW OVER THE BOOTHEEL AND EAST ACROSS THE BORDER. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PLUNGE THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS...AND LIKELY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BY EARLY SUNDAY. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH 700MB
TEMPS FALLING TO -5 TO -8C WITH THE UPPER LOW...WILL RESULT IN MUCH
COOLER TEMPS...MAINLY ON SUNDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES IN ANTICIPATION OF NOT ONLY THESE FACTORS...BUT ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. GFS REMAINS
THE DRIEST OF ALL SOLUTIONS...BUT CANADIAN AND ECMWF AGREE TO SOME
EXTENT THAT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL BE THE
FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. NONETHELESS...HOW
PROLONGED THIS PERIOD WILL BE IS STILL IN QUESTION...AND AT THIS
POINT...NO AREA CAN BE RULED OUT. WITH THE DETAILS STILL UP IN THE
AIR...WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSENSUS BEFORE PINNING DOWN
WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL FALL.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY KDEN-KMCK AT 09Z WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TO APPROXIMATELY KCQC-KCVN LINE BY 21Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE VFR AS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER GREAT BASIN.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH POOR VENTILATION
AREAWIDE. A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE GUSTINESS WON/T BE
SUFFICIENT TO IMPROVE VENTILATION OVER THE EAST
TODAY...CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED IN THE NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW REBOUND...ALTHOUGH
INVERSIONS MAY MAKE FOR A QUICKER WARMUP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BEFORE VALLEY LOCALES START TO CATCH UP THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND LIKELY IMPROVING
VENTILATION AS A SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WINDS ALOFT BECOME
WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN. SOME CLOUDS MAY BLEED INTO THE GILA REGION
BY FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA...BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A WINTRY STORM SYSTEM SPINS UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIR DOES LOOK TO SPREAD OVER NEW MEXICO BY
SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS THIS STORM
COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 48 17 55 20 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 50 11 55 13 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 49 11 55 13 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 51 8 57 9 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 52 12 56 13 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 53 8 56 10 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 54 11 58 12 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 65 24 65 25 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 49 10 54 13 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 25 54 24 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 54 19 57 18 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 10 54 12 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 45 9 49 12 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 45 9 50 11 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 49 9 54 8 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 15 58 17 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 17 54 19 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 20 55 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 27 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 28 56 29 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 52 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 55 18 58 20 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 26 56 27 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 23 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 21 53 21 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 15 57 17 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 21 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 23 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 25 59 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 24 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 47 15 60 17 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 50 14 62 17 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 53 20 61 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 51 29 65 32 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 51 24 61 26 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 57 26 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 58 24 66 26 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 24 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 26 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 25 63 28 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 58 25 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 25 64 28 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 60 24 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 58 21 60 23 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34/99
