FXUS65 KSLC 031136
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
436 AM MST THU DEC 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD AND GENERALLY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA AND IMPACT PRIMARILY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LARGE COLD TROF ENCOMPASSES THE CENTRAL US THIS
MORNING WITH UT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE COLD
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE COLD AIR WAS RE ENFORCED THIS MORNING BY A
SHORT WAVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND WILL KEEP TEMPS COLD ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY. THE ONLY MOISTURE IS A LITTLE BIT A LOW LEVELS OVER
SWRN WY AND NERN UT. THIS HAS GENERATED SOME STRATOCUMULUS THAT
WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY BRING A FEW FLURRIES TO
THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE UINTA MTNS. 

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA TONIGHT INTO FRI AS THE
COLD TROF MOVES EAST BRINGING WARMING ALOFT AND TRAPPING THE COLD
AIR IN THE VALLEYS. THE GFS AND EC ARE IN ROUGH AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THIS NEXT SHORT WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIFFER
ON PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW AS EARLY AS 12Z SAT. THE
RESULTING SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR SAT AND SUN IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE TWO ALTHO THE FARTHER W EC SOLUTION WOULD
TEND TO BE A LITTLE BETTER SNOW PRODUCER FOR NRN UT AND IT WOULD
LAST A LITTLE LONGER AS WELL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE DETAILS OVER THE SUBSEQUENT
3 DAYS THAT IT WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE WX FOR UT SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFTER SUN. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MESSAGE SHOULD STILL
BE THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANGE TO WETTER WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CALM AT TIMES THROUGH 20Z WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 7 TO 9 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

WILENSKY/HOSENFELD

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)