FXUS64 KMEG 252355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH EXPERIENCED SUNNY SKIES AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR 60
DEGREES. WINDS WERE WESTERLY AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE. CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED THANKSGIVING DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE LOWER 50S.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
COMMENCE SATURDAY AND HELP TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER-RIDING THE COOL SURFACE AIR. PRECIPITATION
WILL END BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS IS THE MUCH WETTER SOLUTION. SOMETHING
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS TO SEE WHAT THE EVOLUTION WILL
BE. STAY TUNED.

AC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS OF TAF ISSUANCE. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND INCREASE TO 11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS AFTER 26/14Z. EXPECTING CLOUDS AROUND 3500
FT TO DEVELOP AFTER 26/14Z FOR MKL AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED
UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  39  54  35  56 /   0  10   0   0 
MKL  35  50  30  51 /   0  10   0   0 
JBR  35  51  30  53 /   0  10   0   0 
TUP  35  54  32  56 /   0  10   0   0 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$