FXUS63 KMPX 010505
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GFS WAS VERIFYING BETTER WITH THE WAVE AND WARM ADVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY OFF TO THE SE. NICE AREA OF VERT MOTION AND FGEN OVER NE
MN AT 18Z WITH SOME VSBYS AOB 1/2SM. THE FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
EAST OF OUR AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SOUTHERN MN TONIGHT IN AN AREA OF SHORT
WAVE RIDGING. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY STREAM INTO CENTRAL MN AS
UPSTREAM WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE CONSENSUS THAT A 700 MB LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MN LEAVING OUR AREA DRY FOR TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY
NIGHT. A MILD REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MN
WITH READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 40S BUT A 50 POSSIBLE AGAIN SIMILAR
TO TODAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE NW CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING STRONG SINKING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH COULD OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION LOW
CLOUDS SOMEWHAT. WILL NOT GO WITH A GOOD SURGE OF CLOUDS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS. WILL BROAD BRUSH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WRAP AROUND CYCLONIC FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. REAL GOOD AGREEMENT ON
MODEL TRENDS FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 

THE MAIN MESSAGE FOR LATER PERIODS AND INTO NEXT WEEK IS THE
CONTINUING TREND FOR A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE INTO AK AND FAR
WESTERN CANADA. THE NAEFS TEMP PROBABILITY CHARTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A GRADUAL TREND FOR HIGHER PROBS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AREAS
OF THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. FOR PRECIP CHANCES..THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS MONDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. SUSPECT THAT SOME OF THIS DEVELOPMENT
WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR AREA AFTER WHICH ANOTHER DUMP OF COLD AIR
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD US. HAVE MENTIONED A SMALL POP FOR MONDAY SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM..IS SURFACE WINDS.  
ANOTHER FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL CARVE OUT A PROMINENT 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF THE IR LOOP SHOWED AN AREA OF ENHANCED AND 
COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  THESE CLOUDS ALONG 
WITH THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...SHOULD SKIRT THE 
NORTH-EAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  IN THE WAKE OF THE 
SFC LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
KNOTS OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN BY EVENING.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME LOW CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE 
TAF SITES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  IN THE 
MEANTIME...CLOUDS AND CEILING HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 
5 THOUSAND FEET AGL WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 
THOUSAND FEET. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/JM