FXUS64 KFWD 110514 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1114 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF PACKAGE
LOW CLOUDS /BUT STILL VFR CONDITIONS/ HAVE MOVED INTO ALL TAF
SITES MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANTLY MISHANDLED THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...FORECASTING WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER INTO MVFR CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY BECOMES A CHALLENGE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BUT CEILINGS WILL BE SLOWLY
LOWERING...REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING HOURS. BY THE
VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...ALL SITES WILL HAVE CEILINGS BELOW
015. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN AT KACT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE
METROPLEX. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WELL DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO WORSEN WITH CIGS AND VIS LOWERING DUE TO CONTINUED MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE REGION.
82/JLD
&&
.UPDATE...
WITH THE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF NORTH TX AS HIGH TO MID LVL
CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD IN PLACE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WITH
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN LOW CLOUDS AFTER 18Z TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE TO LOOK BEST OVER
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
ONE MORE COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AND CHILLY DAY TOMORROW BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
20S FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH LOW TO MID 30S OVER
THE SOUTHERN ZONES. FOR FRIDAY...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY...PUMPING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE.
DESPITE THE NAM AND GFS 1000-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS
SHOWING DRYING SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT A DIFFERENT
STORY. EXPECT LOW COUDS...FOG..AND DRIZZLE TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF
THE DAY ON SATURDAY...TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG INVERSION. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LOWER...BUT STILL WARMER THAN THE
LAST FEW DAYS. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S WILL BE COMMON EAST OF
I-35...WITH LOWER 60S WEST OF THE INTERSTATE. THESE READINGS WILL
BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE NORMS.
THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE IN FULL SWING FOR SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE REGION WILL BE
ENTRENCHED IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...ALLOWING FOR 850MB TEMPS
NEAR 14C TO SNEAK INTO NORTH TEXAS. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN A BIT ON MONDAY...AS CLOUDS INVADE WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
NORTH TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT...DROPPING HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BACK
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SCHULTZ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 29 44 38 56 45 / 5 10 20 20 10
WACO, TX 34 45 43 60 48 / 5 10 40 20 10
PARIS, TX 26 45 33 48 43 / 5 10 30 20 10
DENTON, TX 28 45 37 58 43 / 5 10 20 20 10
MCKINNEY, TX 28 45 35 53 43 / 5 10 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 32 44 40 55 48 / 5 10 30 20 10
TERRELL, TX 30 46 39 55 48 / 5 10 30 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 32 47 39 55 46 / 5 10 50 20 10
TEMPLE, TX 35 44 43 58 45 / 5 20 40 20 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
82/69
