FXUS63 KICT 021132
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
532 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL CIGS WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MIDDAY...WITH THE
PRECIP ALOFT NEAR THE CLOUD BASES EXPECTED TO BE A SNOW/RAIN MIX.
KED
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
A SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TDY-TONIGHT
COLD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT KANSAS TODAY...AS POLAR
AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAKE FOR A RAW WINTER-LIKE DAY. SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STILL SEEM REASONABLE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THIS MORNING BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
THU-FRI
COLD POLAR AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER KANSAS THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON. SNOW FLURRIES
LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER NEBRASKA AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY...AS MID-LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS FROM APPROACHING
COLD POCKET AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOOKS LIKE THE FLURRY
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED: SAT-TUE
POLAR AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT FOR SATURDAY BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND A SEMI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. GFS/ECMWF MODELS BOTH SHOW A SHORTWAVE RACING EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS/NEBRASKA THROUGH THE ZONAL REGIME ON SUNDAY...WHICH
COULD OPEN UP THE GATES FOR THE NEXT SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLD AIR
INTO KANSAS FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
USUALLY RESULTS IN THE COLD AIRMASS OOZING SOUTHWARD AND THEN
STALLING OUT UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME...WITH SMALL NORTH/SOUTH
MIGRATIONS OF THE COLD AIR AS IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE PATTERN.
LATEST MODEL SIGNALS AND MREF PLUME DIAGRAMS ARE SUPPORTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 5-7...THUS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LOWERED BY
LATER SHIFTS IF TRENDS PERSIST.
JAKUB
AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
WIND SHIFT AND GUSTY WINDS STILL REMAIN THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE. THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY THROUGH
KHUT BY 05Z...AND LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO REACH KICT AROUND 06-07Z.
STILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH KCNU AROUND 09Z. THERE ARE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...WINDS WILL DECREASE...BUT REMAIN NORTHERLY. A SMALL
LINE OF SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AT 05Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE KCNU TAF SITE...SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
BILLINGS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 41 21 38 18 / 10 0 10 10
HUTCHINSON 39 22 36 17 / 10 0 10 10
NEWTON 40 22 36 17 / 10 0 10 10
ELDORADO 41 23 36 18 / 10 0 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 42 22 38 17 / 10 0 10 10
RUSSELL 38 17 35 11 / 10 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 38 17 35 12 / 10 0 10 10
SALINA 39 22 35 19 / 10 0 10 10
MCPHERSON 39 22 36 17 / 10 0 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 45 26 39 20 / 20 10 10 10
CHANUTE 43 24 37 20 / 20 10 10 10
IOLA 42 24 36 20 / 20 10 10 10
PARSONS-KPPF 44 23 38 16 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
