FXUS61 KCAR 252040
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
340 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS,,,MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY, AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF ST LAWRENCE CONTINUES
TO PROVIDE MOIST NORTHEAST FLOW THAT IS PRODUCING THE LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES THAT IS MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE TONIGHT, IT WILL LIFT PSEUDO
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
SECTIONS WITH THE FRONT AND WILL LEAN WITH THE MORE RELIABLE GFS
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
CROSSES THE REGION WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A COUPLE OF TENTHS
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE TAPERING TO JUST A TRACE ALONG THE
COAST. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BREAKING DOWN THE LOW LEVEL
FRONTAL INVERSION THAT HAS TRAPPED THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING, EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY DOWNEAST TONIGHT SO DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED THERE.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTH OF THE STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY AND
CRESTING ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER THE SUN WILL BE ABLE TO POKE THROUGH THE CLOUDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POSSIBLE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWNEAST.
ANY SUNSHINE COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 40S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THURSDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRACKS THE LOW INTO
SOUTHWEST MAINE DURING FRIDAY WHILE THE NAM IS WEAKER AND TRACKS
THE LOW TO EAST OF BAR HARBOR BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD A MORE GFS TYPE SOLUTION SINCE IT SEEMED TO HAVE SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST  EC AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THUS WILL POPS
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS AND LIKELY NORTH...THEN ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP
THE HIGHEST POPS NORTH AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH WITH SOME DRY
SLOTTING WORKING INTO DOWNEAST MAINE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PTYPE
NOT AN ISSUE AS IT SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL LIQUID
EVENT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE
GFS/HPC/SREF FOR QPF...THUS EXPECTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND A HALF
TO POSSIBLY CLOSE TO AN INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST MAINE. 

DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEAST AS H5 LOW STARTS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE LOW
LIFTS EAST COLDER AIR WILL START TO WRAP INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST WITH ANY LINGERING RAIN GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE H5 LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION DURING SATURDAY EXPECT A MUCH COLDER
AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS NORTH WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY AND A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS THE REGION THEN COOL TO THE MID TO UPR 30S NORTH AND UPPER
30S TO NEAR 40 ACROSS DOWNEAST. 
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IT ALSO WILL
REMAIN RATHER BLUSTERY INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY
LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE THAT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER MOST OF SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE NEXT
SHORT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER MONDAY AND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW DOWNEAST. COLDER AIR AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILLS SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MAINLY IFR DURING FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS UP ACROSS THE
REGION. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND SCT SNOW/RAINSHOWERS. MVFR CIGS
AND SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MAINLY VFR DOWNEAST. VFR CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS NEXT
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT SEAS REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FT DUE TO SOUTHEAST SWELL SO WILL CONTINUE SCA FOR SEAS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA ON THURSDAY. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS FOR
WINDS AND THE WNAWAVE FOR SEAS.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/DUDA