FXUS61 KBOX 010824
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
324 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND DRIVEN RAIN TO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT
OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND THERE IS EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING.
COOLER...DRIER AND FAIR WEATHER IS BEING USHERED INTO SNE IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER A SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MORE SUN WILL BE SEEN ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS
DISTURBANCE WON/T HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT ENOUGH ASCENT
MAY BE GENERATED TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE FAR INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES
WERE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND THE NAM 2M
TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT WAVE WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING AND COLDER CONDITIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE THINK
IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH A SIGHT CHANCE THAT
PRECIP COULD GET INTO SOUTHWESTERNMOST ZONES VERY LATE IN THE DAY.
WE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE AFTER DARK. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A
THICKENING CANOPY OF CIRRUS CLOUDS AS THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THE
AFTERNOON...PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAX OUT 5 TO POSSIBLY AS
MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE AN 
INLAND TRACK AND IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY MORNING.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN 
NEW YORK STATE OR EVEN A BIT WEST OF THAT REGION.  THE TWO MAIN 
THREATS WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AS 
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST 
DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION...A 
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH EVEN A FEW EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.  WE WILL DISCUSS ALL THIS BELOW:

1) WIND POTENTIAL... 
ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM PASSING WELL WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...POSSIBLY THROUGH 
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY.  THE MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT 
ON THE EXACT TIMING/STRENGTH AND OVERALL NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS 
YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT A 985 TO 990 MB LOW TRACKING 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK OR THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY 
MORNING.  THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW 
STRONG THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES WHICH REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT 
THIS POINT.  HOWEVER...ITS POSSIBLE THAT IT REACHES BETWEEN 70 AND 
80 KNOTS FOR A TIME THURSDAY MORNING.  IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS 
OF 3 TO 5 MB IN 3 HOURS ARE EXPECTED.  WITH ALL THIS SAID...FEEL 
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF WIND ADVISORY AFFECTING AT LEAST A 
PORTION OF THE REGION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  USUALLY 
IN WARM SECTOR EVENTS THE STRONG WINDS ARE ONLY FOR A SHORT 
DURATION...MAYBE 2 TO 3 HOURS THURSDAY MORNING.  THE INVERSION WILL 
LIMIT THE MIXING POTENTIAL SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 
HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.  HOWEVER...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ANY 
CONVECTION MAY HELP TO BRING A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE 
SURFACE.  THEREFORE...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGH WIND 
WARNING CRITERIA BEING MET IN A FEW LOCATIONS.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR 
THIS MAY BE ACROSS INTERIOR RHODE ISLAND/SOUTHEAST MA WHERE SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SURGE TO OVER 60 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE 
WARM SECTOR.

2) MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTH COAST THURSDAY 
MORNING...
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MAY 
OVERLAP THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...WHICH ROUGHLY OCCURS AROUND 8 
OR 9 AM IN THE MORNING.  EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE WINDS BECOME AND 
TIMING WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.  
HOWEVER...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF OVER A 2 FOOT STORM 
SURGE AT THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST.  
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS BUZZARDS AND NARRAGANSETT BAYS.  ITS TOO EARLY FOR 
ANY HEADLINES...BUT THIS CERTAINLY HAS POTENTIAL AND A COASTAL FLOOD 
WATCH MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

3) HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS WILL YIELD A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN 
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WITH GOOD MOISTURE RETURN.  FORTUNATELY...THE 
SYSTEM IS A FAST MOVER SO WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A QUICK 0.75 TO 1.50 
WITH PERHAPS SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING 
IS EXPECTED...BUT WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE 
STREET FLOODING.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND MARGINAL 
INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DO NOT THINK WE 
ARE LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD THUNDER THOUGH...SO JUST PLANNING ON 
MENTIONING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  ALL THE RAIN 
SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE OVER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE MAY EVEN SEE 
SOME SUNSHINE BREAKOUT.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ALL THE MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WILL BE A PATTERN 
SHIFT TO THE RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST 
MONTH.  EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH 
THE PERIOD.  

IN ADDITION...WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE 
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.  ITS A LONG 
WAY OFF SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 
THE FIRST SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WE JUST WILL 
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE LOW CAN DEVELOP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE 
COAST TO THROW BACK SOME PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION.  WOULD NOT 
BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP AND HELP PULL THE 
MOISTURE BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...ITS 5 DAYS OUT 
SO IF THE TROUGH IS LESS AMPLIFIED THAN ADVERTISED THE PRECIPITATION 
COULD REMAIN OUT OVER THE OCEAN.  FOR NOW WILL BE INCLUDING CHANCE 
POPS AND LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE IF FROM THERE.  IT LOOKS LIKE 
WHATEVER FALLS WOULD MAINLY BE SNOW...OR PERHAPS RAIN CHANGING SO TO 
SNOW ACROSS THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

TODAY...VFR AFTER A FEW PATCHES OF EARLY MORNING MVFR CIGS.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL BRING 
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING IN HEAVY 
RAIN...BRIEF STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A 
PERIOD OF SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY MARGINAL SCA SEAS EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY MARGINALLY GUST TO SCA LEVELS THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS EVENING...BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS MARGINAL.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SHOULD BRING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO
ALL WATERS.

OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS OVER 10
FEET OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA CRITERIA BUT SEAS WILL 
REMAIN ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS.

SATURDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SCA OR PERHAPS EVEN A MARGINAL 
AS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE COAST. CONFIDENCE 
THIS FAR OUT IS LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BOSTON/S LOGAN AIRPORT HAS NOT FALLEN TO THE FREEZING MARK SO FAR 
THIS SEASON. THE RECORD LATEST IN THE SEASON THAT BOSTON HAS 
RECORDED ITS FIRST 32F WAS DEC 2ND 1975. AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 32 IN
BOSTON IS AROUND NOVEMBER 4TH.

DESPITE THE POTENTIAL LATEST OCCURRING FREEZING TEMP AT BOSTON...WE 
DID ESTABLISH THE 3RD EARLIEST MINOR SNOWFALL AT LOGAN AIRPORT THIS 
FALL ON OCTOBER 18TH.

NOVEMBER 2009 WAS TOP 10 WARMEST AT OUR 4 CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE
PRELIMINARY NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE AVERAGES AND DEPARTURES FOR THE
MONTH.

BOS 48.9...PLUS 3.9...RANKED NUMBER 6.
BDL 46.4...PLUS 4.6...RANKED NUMBER 6.
PVD 48.9...PLUS 5.1...RANKED NUMBER 3. 
ORH 44.5...PLUS 4.9...RANKED NUMBER 5.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ231-232-235-237-251.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ250.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     ANZ254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...FRANK
AVIATION...EKSTER/FRANK
MARINE...EKSTER/FRANK
CLIMATE...