FXUS63 KEAX 101132
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
531 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WITH
TEMPERATURES BEFORE LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INTRODUCED THIS
WEEKEND. A RATHER FRIGID START THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS. THIS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS LEAD
TO WIND CHILLS READINGS AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST SPOTS. GOING
WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY 
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM A FULL SUN WILL 
LIKELY BE THE MAIN WARMING PROCESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO 
OVERCOMING THE COMBINATION OF A COLD START AND EXISTING SNOW PACK 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE THEREFORE WENT WITH A DECENT 
GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW 
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE SNOW PACK AREAS AND ALL AREAS BELOW THE FREEZING 
MARK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRIMARY SFC
RIDGE ON ONLY A SLOW TRACK EASTWARD AND A SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
LLVL FLOW FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. KEPT RATHER CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN MIND SNOW PACK AREAS WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK UNTIL
SUFFICIENT MELTING OCCURS. THIS MAY BE A RATHER SLOW PROCESS FOR
AREAS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE OVER A FOOT OF SNOW IS IN
PLACE.

SFC RIDGE FINALLY REACHES THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
SOME RETURNING MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM APPROACHING WAVE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP BY SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS THAT PRECIP MAY BEGIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LATER
SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
TRENDS CONTINUE. AT THE MOMENT...ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES APPEAR TO 
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SATURDAY EVENING WITH MID LEVEL DRYING 
LEADING TO DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 3.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER KS AND OK WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD. WINDS 
WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KNOTS.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>024.

KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.

&&

$$