FXUS65 KABQ 272156
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MILD AND FAIRLY TRANQUIL DAY TODAY...BUT A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES POISED TO INVADE NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE WEST COAST STORM
ADVANCING S AND E. THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL DROP SSE ACROSS CA
TON AND SAT...CROSS SW AZ INTO THE GULF OF CA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN
NIGHT...THEN TURN E ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO W TX MON INTO TUE. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW S AND W SAT NIGHT AND SUN OVER THE ERN
PLAINS AND SHOULD SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WHILE SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE HIGH INITIALLY ON SATURDAY...THEY WILL DROP SHARPLY
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN ACROSS THE E...WHILE NOT SO QUICKLY OVER THE W.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE STORM...
BUT STILL CANNOT AGREE ON FAVORED SNOW ACCUMULATION AREAS. RAIN
SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE STATE. MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT
TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. IT IS THE MIDNIGHT SAT
NIGHT TO NOON SUN TIME PERIOD WHEN WE FEEL DECENT SNOWFALL COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS. WILL HOIST
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SRN SAN JUAN...JEMEZ AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INCLUDING
TAOS.
MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOW LIKELY TO SHIFT TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CNTRL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUN THANKS TO STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH SNOW THEN
GRADUALLY ENDING FROM N TO S SUN NIGHT AND MON. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THE WRN AND CNTRL MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS THE ERN HIGH PLAINS. LIMITING FACTOR IN THE W WILL BE THE
TEMPERATURE...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING RATHER HIGH THROUGH
THE DAY SUN. IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE OVER OUR SW
AND SC MOUNTAINS...WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED.
MAIN EMPHASIS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER CHILLY NW FLOW. A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS COULD IMPACT N AND E NM DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
28/1800 UTC BEFORE CLOUD BASES BEGIN TO LOWER AND PRECIPITATION
GRADUALLY SPREADS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A TAOS TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SOCORRO LINE WILL
EVENTUALLY SEE SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BRING ISOLATED/LOCALIZED AREAS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL ONLY BE FOUND AT
THE HIGHEST WESTERN/NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
SOME PEAKS BECOMING OBSCURED.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH IN TACT
AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE NATION AND THE
REMNANTS OF A WEAK UPPER CIRCULATION ERODE AWAY OVER WEST TEXAS. SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...RELATIVELY SPEAKING...HAVE NUDGED THEIR WAY INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SW NEW MEXICO...AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES HIGHER PWAT ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO BEGINNING TO STREAM
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS ALL IN RESPONSE TO AN ABRUPT PATTERN
SHIFT THAT WILL UNFOLD LATE SATURDAY AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENTLY THE UPPER SYSTEM IS SKIMMING THE CALIFORNIA COAST AS
AN OPEN WAVE...BUT SHOULD CLOSE OFF INTO A LOW AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS GOOD RH RECOVERY ENSUES IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
SATURDAY WILL SEE FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION AS MODERATE WESTERLY
BREEZES DEVELOP...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE
25 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE WHERE
CLOUDS/PRECIP/DEWPOINTS WILL BE INCREASING. MINIMUM RH WILL FALL TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT IN MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN
8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WIND
SPEEDS DO NOT APPEAR TO EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE UPPER LOW
REACHES THE UPPER BAJA PENINSULA AND EJECTS A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER
NEW MEXICO. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE LOWER
VALLEYS LOOK TO REMAIN TOO WARM TOO SUPPORT MUCH...IF ANY...SNOW
ACCUMULATION. STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO RIP THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WILL ADVANCE SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE FRONT AND BELOW CENTRAL GAPS/CANYONS. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...
BUT THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EVEN MORE BY MONDAY AS THE LOW SWINGS SOUTH OF THE BOOT HEEL. MIXING
AND VENTILATION WILL SUFFER ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE FORESEEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE PRECIP AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 23 49 31 45 / 0 40 50 40
DULCE........................... 16 51 27 44 / 0 40 60 50
CUBA............................ 19 50 26 41 / 0 40 60 50
GALLUP.......................... 20 50 28 43 / 0 40 60 40
EL MORRO........................ 23 52 26 41 / 5 40 70 50
GRANTS.......................... 18 54 25 42 / 0 30 60 50
QUEMADO......................... 23 54 24 44 / 5 40 50 40
GLENWOOD........................ 36 60 36 52 / 0 40 50 40
CHAMA........................... 16 49 23 40 / 0 40 70 50
LOS ALAMOS...................... 26 52 28 40 / 0 20 60 50
PECOS........................... 27 53 26 40 / 0 10 50 60
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 17 50 23 40 / 0 10 60 60
RED RIVER....................... 17 45 19 33 / 0 20 60 60
ANGEL FIRE...................... 15 45 20 34 / 0 20 60 60
TAOS............................ 15 51 24 40 / 0 10 60 50
ESPANOLA........................ 20 57 29 43 / 0 10 60 50
SANTA FE........................ 25 53 27 41 / 0 10 60 50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 25 54 31 43 / 0 10 60 50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 31 57 37 45 / 0 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 33 58 39 46 / 0 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 28 59 36 47 / 0 10 50 50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 32 58 38 46 / 0 20 50 50
LOS LUNAS....................... 26 62 35 47 / 0 10 50 50
RIO RANCHO...................... 30 58 38 46 / 0 20 50 50
SOCORRO......................... 33 63 39 48 / 0 10 30 50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 48 30 41 / 0 10 60 50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 24 56 31 43 / 0 5 50 50
CLINES CORNERS.................. 29 54 29 36 / 0 5 50 60
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 59 33 43 / 0 5 40 50
CARRIZOZO....................... 31 62 39 44 / 0 5 30 50
RUIDOSO......................... 30 57 33 40 / 0 5 40 60
CAPULIN......................... 22 54 21 36 / 0 5 30 60
RATON........................... 20 58 26 37 / 0 5 40 50
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 56 25 36 / 0 5 50 50
CLAYTON......................... 33 62 27 39 / 0 0 30 40
ROY............................. 30 59 29 39 / 0 5 40 50
CONCHAS......................... 31 67 33 45 / 0 5 30 40
SANTA ROSA...................... 35 68 34 43 / 0 5 40 50
TUCUMCARI....................... 31 68 31 41 / 0 0 30 40
CLOVIS.......................... 33 69 34 43 / 0 0 30 40
PORTALES........................ 32 70 36 44 / 0 0 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 33 71 35 43 / 0 0 30 40
ROSWELL......................... 32 72 41 47 / 0 0 30 40
PICACHO......................... 33 69 39 45 / 0 0 30 50
ELK............................. 31 63 35 42 / 0 0 30 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>516.
&&
$$
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