FXUS63 KLBF 230945
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD TODAY WITH PERIODS
OF SNOW TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ADD
TO TRAVEL PROBLEMS BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE WEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SNOWFALL TOTALS AND WINDS IN THE NEAR TERM.
MODELS HAVE COMPLETED A KNEE JERK THAT HAS SHIFTED MAIN EMPHASIS
FOR SNOW TOTALS EAST AND NORTH. FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS
THAT PROVIDED BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHILE STILL SHIFTING
GREATER PRECIP POTENTIAL NORTHEAST. THIS MORNING AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FREEZING FOG INDICATED WITH NDOR WEBSITE INDICATING
CAUTION ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR SOUTHWEST. IR SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST...WHILE FURTHER SOUTH
TROPICAL CONNECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARITIME POLAR JET HEADING EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR LARGE AREA OF SINKING AIR AND CLEARING
IN WEST TEXAS. THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT IS DRAWING DRIER AIR NORTH
WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DISSIPATING ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN
EDGES. TIME SECTION AND SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW THE WEDGE OF DRIER
AIR ALOFT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY AS IT SHIFTS NORTH
FOR IMPACTS FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
THIS MORNING BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE THE AIR COLUMN COOLING
AND BECOMING SATURATED BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM CST. RUC SOLUTION ALSO
INDICATES THE DENDRITIC LAYER FINALLY MOISTENING WITH PLENTY OF
LIFT SO SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTH THEN SPREAD
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. THE 00Z MODEL RUN DOES PUSH THE SYSTEM
FASTER EAST THAT CREATES CHALLENGES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IN CONSIDERATION FOR LATEST
INFORMATION MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER
POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ANTIOCH TO MULLEN...BRADY AND
HAYES CENTER WILL STILL SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE
HIGHEST OVER BOYD AND HOLT COUNTIES...WHERE 12 TO 15 INCHES OF
SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN FOR STRONG WINDS
THURSDAY THAT WILL EXTEND INTO FRIDAY. BUFKIT SHOWS UP TO 41 KNOTS
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE PUSHING 26 KNOTS OR MORE AS SYSTEM ABSORBS
ALBERTA H5 LOW INTO MAIN UPPER LOW THAT OSCILLATES OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY PERIOD. ON THURSDAY AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
CLOSED LOWS MERGE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CLEARING IN THE WEST
BUT IS EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN AS H5 CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AND
SLOWS. THE SYSTEMS TRACK REMAINS IN QUESTION AND FULL IMPACT STILL
SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN LACK IN RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWN AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AREAS OF PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING EVEN THOUGH MOST
REPORTING SITES NOT CARRYING IT. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 2SM
AND ICING LIKELY BELOW 800MB. SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM
CST /5 AM MST/ FRIDAY FOR NEZ004-022>024-035-036-056>058-069-070-094.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR NEZ005>010-
025>029-037-038-059-071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/EXTENDED...KECK
AVIATION...POWER
