FXUS61 KCAR 081055
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 AM EST TUE DEC 8 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL EXIT THROUGH THE
MARITIMES THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINI-NORLUN TYPE SITUATION WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY EARLY THIS
MORNING IN PENOBSCOT BAY AREA. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES IN BGR AND BHB
BUT RADAR INDICATES HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW FOR ISLANDS ALONG COAST
NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY. A FEW ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH COULD
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THIS MORNING ON THESE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH DOWNEAST AND AROUND BGR THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
LOW 20S NORTH AND LOW 30S SOUTH. CU/SC WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE TUES NGT. THIS WILL PERMIT
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME READINGS NEAR ZERO IN
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS IN NORTH. CAR/PQI AREAS WILL HAVE A NW
WIND RETARDING COOLING UNTIL LATER IN NIGHT. BGR AREA WILL GET
HIGH CLD COVER AS NIGHT PROGRESS...ALONG WITH INCR EAST
WINDS...AND THIS WILL KEEP LOWS IN TEENS FOR THIS AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW
AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT
AND INTENSIFYING LOW. AT THE SAME TIME...LEFT EXIT REGION JET
SUPPORT WILL FURTHER ENHANCE LIFT LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG LIFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALOFT LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE DOWNEAST PARTICULARLY INLAND FROM THE COAST.
THUS...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ENOUGH WARM AIR COULD REACH THE COAST TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO
EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN THERE LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX COULD OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS...EVEN THE COAST...WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE...GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN SNOW.
THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE OCCLUSION AND INTENSIFYING
LOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE OCCLUSION. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK
TO SNOW DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY MORNING. WINTER STORM
WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS CENTRAL/DOWNEAST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...WINTER
STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
OCCLUSION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE BEST MIXING WILL
OCCUR...WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT. ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS...WINDS COULD GUST TO 30 TO
40 MPH DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF MIXING WHICH OCCURS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BLUSTERY THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY. A
SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY COULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS COULD THEN
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY. THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON WILL BE DRAWN ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN REMAINING AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND BGR AND DOWNEAST COAST WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW ENDS. ELSEWHERE VFR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDS NGT.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS ACROSS THE
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS THURSDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS
COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...WITH GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DOWNEAST. STRONG
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR COULD BE A CONCERN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN PERSISTING THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. SWANNAM
SEEMS BEST AND USED TO INITIALIZE. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUES NGT BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE
PULLS AWAYS FROM THE WATERS DURING TUES. SOME GUSTS WILL BE OVER
20 KT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE LEVELS WEDNESDAY. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING STORM FORCE LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MWALKER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...MWALKER
MARINE...MWALKER/NORCROSS