FXUS65 KLKN 101101
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
301 AM PST THU DEC 10 2009

.SYNOPSIS...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
NEVADA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL SPREAD THROUGHOUT NORTHERN
NEVADA BY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS A POSSIBILITY THIS
WEEKEND. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE SHORT TERM. EXTREME COLD TEMPERATURES MAY BE BEHIND US BUT
STILL RATHER COLD FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT...TONIGHT. PARTS OF
CENTRAL NEVADA ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ERUPTING FROM THE INVERSION
WITH SOME 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME FOG
FORMING AROUND NORTHERN NEVADA THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE ELKO
AREA AND THE FORECAST ACCURATELY REPRESENTS THIS. DO NOT THINK FOG
WILL BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE RELEASED INTO THE
SURFACE LAYER YESTERDAY.

NORTHERN NEVADA WILL BE UNDER AN INVERSION AGAIN TODAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY REACH ONLY INTO THE 20S. TONIGHTS LOWS
WILL ONCE AGAIN SINK TO BELOW ZERO...HOWEVER SHOWING SOME
MODERATION.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MODERATE A BIT...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC AND INSOLATION WILL
BE LIMITED. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN OVER THE
WESTERN CWA FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY AND THIS NEXT SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE AT VALLEY
FLOORS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AFTER AN INITIAL BAND OF
OVERRUNNING PRECIP MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY...CENTRAL
NEVADA MAY BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS NEXT
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW A HEAVY BAND
OF PRECIPITATION SETTING UP OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT OVER-RUNNING BAND
DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY. 

MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE MODERATING DAYTIME/OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
AND SPLITTING FRIDAY PERIODS TO REFOCUS TIMING OF PRECIPITATION TO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. A SIGNIFICANT 
WINTER WEATHER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
NEVADA THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS SYSTEM...PW VALUES WILL BE ROUGHLY 
TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. 
ANTICIPATE GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS 
LATE SATURDAY. THE LIONS SHARE OF THE QPF IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN 
NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES...WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING 
BETWEEN 2 TO 5 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE 
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE SCHELL CREEK...WHITE PINE AND SNAKE RANGES. 
ALTHOUGH THE MODE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY SNOW 
WITH THIS SYSTEM...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX COULD MATERIALIZE OVER 
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. SNOWS WILL CONTINUE WELL 
INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LKN CWA...WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY OVER ELKO COUNTY. 

WEAK RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO NEVADA IN THE WAKE OF 
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERN STREAM 
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...LEFT 
POPS ALONG THE IDAHO/NEVADA BORDER.
&&

.AVIATION...FREEZING FOG CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
LKN AIRPORT...AT TIMES REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE. THIS 
PARTICULAR PATCH OF FOG NEAR THE AIRPORT APPEARS TO REGULARLY SHIFT 
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. BY 14Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LKN. ALL 
THE WHILE...A PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
INLAND...INCREASING THE CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE FORM OF HIGH AND MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS ON THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TPH...ELY 
AND WMC FOR THE ENSUING 24 HR PERIOD.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

92/97/97