FXUS62 KMLB 091611
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009
.UPDATE...
...BREEZY AND HUMID TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES LIFTING NE WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FL
PANHANDLE. ACROSS EC FL...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AS MIXING
HEIGHTS DEEPEN WITH SFC HEATING. GUSTY S/SW WINDS WITHIN WARM SECTOR
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY CONDS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. RECORD
HIGH AT VRB IS MOST LIKELY TO BE TIED/BROKEN...FOLLOWED BY DAB.
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THRU MIDDAY BUT PGRAD
LOOKS TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN SO PROBABLY A GOOD CALL NOT TO
ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADV.
BAND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT APPROACHING TLH WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA LATER THIS AFTN. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW AHEAD OF THIS LINE...INCREASING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS
LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH 30% POPS. CONSIDERED ADDING THUNDER
TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS AFTN BUT BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AND WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET. WILL REASSESS POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA WITH AFTN PACKAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
REMAINING PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME VFR SHORTLY. GUSTY S/SW WINDS
UP TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
ADDED A CAUTION HEADLINE FOR THE VOLUSIA NEARSHORE WATERS. OTHERWISE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KELLY
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA STILL IN THE LOW
70S...KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MUGGY IN THE LOW 70S AS WELL.
DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE LIMITED THIS MORNING AS WINDS REMAIN 5 TO 10 KTS. WITH WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SFC EVEN STRONGER AT 25 TO 30 KTS. MOST OF THE EARLY
MORNING GLOOMINESS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED FOG.
THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
TODAY...WITH DAYTIME MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE
FORM OF AFTERNOON GUSTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY...GENERALLY
AROUND 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ROUGH ON AREA WATERWAYS AND LAKES.
A FEW TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM12
REGARDING THE SPEED OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. BY SUNRISE THU...THE GFS/ECM ALREADY HAVE IT INTO THE NRN
CWA WHILE THE NAM HOLDS IT BACK OVER THE BIG BEND AREA. WENT WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AS THE
SECONDARY SFC LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT
OUT...BUT THERE IS STILL A STRONG JET NOSING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF
THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WHICH MAY GIVE THINGS A LITTLE MORE OF A
PUSH. WITH THIS THINKING...KEPT THE CHANCE POPS JUST OVER THE FAR
NORTHWEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EVERYWHERE ELSE
EXCEPT THE TREASURE COAST. WITH WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS...THE
VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING FRONT COULD HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS IN
ADVANCE OF THE MAIN FRONTAL PRECIP. EXPECT TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS
INCREASE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE.
THE STRONG S-SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OVER YESTERDAYS. A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD APPROACH RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN MID 80S...WITH
UPPER 80S POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR SOUTH. EXACT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT REACHES OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW
EXPECT LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH TO AROUND 70S OVER THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE HIGHER UP NORTH IF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN.
MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR FOR BOATING IN
THE OPEN WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS OF
AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE LEGS AND 15-20KTS OVER THE NEARSHORE
LEGS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WITH STRONG SW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS CONTINUES IN THE OFFSHORE LEGS. FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS...WARM AIR OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...ALONG WITH
WINDS BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTH/ SOUTHWEST...SHOULD KEEP THE
CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST FROM DETERIORATING SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER
A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE WEST OVERNIGHT AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO CENTRAL FL.
CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 9TH
RECORD/DATE SET
DAB 85/1978
MCO 87/1978
MLB 88/1978
VRB 84/1997
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 84 63 63 51 / 20 40 50 20
MCO 84 66 66 51 / 20 40 50 20
MLB 86 70 72 59 / 20 30 50 20
VRB 86 71 76 62 / 20 30 50 20
LEE 82 62 62 44 / 30 40 50 20
SFB 84 64 64 50 / 20 40 50 20
ORL 84 67 67 50 / 20 40 50 20
FPR 86 71 77 63 / 10 20 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
