FXUS62 KTBW 100812
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRIDGES ACROSS
IT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAINS IN ITS WAKE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.
INHERITED LIKELY POPS (60-70% RANGE) ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
AND CHANCE CATEGORY (40-50%) FAR SOUTH LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ZONES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING WITH READINGS HOLDING STEADY OR
EVEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL
CONTINUE FAR SOUTH.
COOLER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES TONIGHT WHILE SLIGHT CHANCES (POPS 20%) WILL CONTINUE FAR SOUTH
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ON FRIDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING
A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES (POPS 30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
DURING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE
DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
(POPS AROUND 40%) FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...THEN A FURTHER
INCREASE IN RAIN (POPS 50-60%) IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH AND UPPER ENERGY AND WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITHIN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AND NEAR
NORMAL FAR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN FL SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGING WILL THEN
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE FROM
THE REMNANT BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME UPPER ENERGY MOVING OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH
A FEW TERMINALS STILL AT MVFR BUT CEILINGS ARE STILL MAINLY IN THE
IFR TO LIFR RANGE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH 14-16Z AND
THEN LIFT TO GENERALLY MVFR WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND STALLS. COULD AGAIN SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEA OF 3-4
FEET EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS. WINDS WILL VEER
INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH BRIDGES ACROSS IT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY WINDS/SEAS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SMALL
CRAFT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS WITH THESE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 50 65 58 / 70 20 30 40
FMY 71 60 73 61 / 40 20 30 40
GIF 69 51 65 57 / 70 20 30 40
SRQ 69 55 69 59 / 60 20 30 40
BKV 65 43 61 54 / 70 20 30 40
SPG 68 54 65 60 / 70 20 30 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY
FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
