FXUS63 KJKL 092011
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM IS WELL MIXED AND CONNECTED TO A +50 KNOT JET.
THE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAK SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT MODELS DO NOT EXPECT A FULL DECOUPLING UNTIL THU NIGHT...
EXCEPT OF COURSE IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS. HIGH WINDS ARE
ONGOING BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPOSURE. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TREES...POWER
LINES...HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ETC. SO HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
AND LET EVENING SHIFT MAKE THE ALL CLEAR CALL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH NOT MATERIALIZED AS EXPECTED BUT
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A ISOLATED FOR PART OF THE AREA TO EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THU/FRI BUT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THU
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIGHT HAVE A BIT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT SAT MORNING. MOS DOES NOT THINK SO BUT IMPLIED ABOUT AN 8F
DEGREE SPLIT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC 
WEATHER MAKERS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC 
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LEADS 
TO A GENERALLY COOLER FORECAST THAN THE LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE 
WOULD INDICATE. ONE OF THE PRIMARY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM  
PROTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES 
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON THE 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 
06Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. CHANCES 
OF OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LOW...BUT EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO 
OF 0.01 INCH PER HOUR FREEZING RAIN CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY SO THAT ANY CONTINUING 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PLAIN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

WINDS ARE STILL INCREASING AND MIXING THE LOW LEVEL JET TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS EAST KY WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH 50+ KT GUSTS UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE
REST OF TODAY BUT MAINLY OVER THE NORTH PORTION. THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING AS LOW LEVELS ARE MIXED AND WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...GV
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GV