FXUS62 KMHX 142151
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
445 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LOW CLOUDS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT EXPECT THAT TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW CLOUDS MOVE
BACK IN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF 
PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/50 DEGREES...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY
RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PRECIP BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA AFTER 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 
AS OF 3 PM MON...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON HANDLING OF PRECIP. NAM MUCH DRIER
THAN GFS/ECMWF. BEST CHANCE STILL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE COAST.
KEPT LIKELY POPS ALONG THE COAST...AND CHANCE INLAND. TAPERED BACK
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS GFS SHOWS THETA-E RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND SPC HAS SOUTHERN AREAS MENTIONED
IN GENERAL THUNDER...SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN COAST EARLY TUESDAY. KEPT IN A CHANCE FOR LINGERING 
POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST. FRONT SHOULD 
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. NWLY FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 AND LOWS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST BOTH WED NIGHT AND THU
NIGHT. HPC HAS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MOVING NE AND
OFF THE SC/NC COAST BY SUNDAY. MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO
DIFFER...SO BUT HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO HPC. BEST PRECIP CHANCES
ATTM LOOKS LIKE SAT/SUN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES CLEARED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTN BUT MVFR SCU APPROACHING 
KOAJ LATE AFTN AND MAY AFFECT KEWN AND KISO EARLY EVENING. MAIN WX 
OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND/OR ADVECTING IN FROM SW 
ALL SITES. LIFR/IFR EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING WITH RAIN 
MAINLY AFFECT SRN AREAS. CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUE AFTN 
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SKIES CLEARING LATE TUE NIGHT BUT GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL AFFECT 
AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. VFR PREVAILING WED THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH 
STRONG HIGH PRES AFFECTING AREA. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS PSBLY DEVELOPING 
LATE SAT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING TO S AND MOVING NE. 

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/VRBL CONDITIONS OVER AREA WITH WEAK HIGH PRES OVERHEAD. ISSUED 
MWS TO HANDLE AREAS OF DENSE FOG INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SRN PAMLICO 
SOUND AND WATERS HAT TO LOOKOUT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVERNIGHT WITH FRONT APPROACHING...THEN STRONG 
WINDS LIKELY WITH POST-FRONTAL CAA SURGE LATE TUE NIGHT AND WED 
MORNING. POSTED SCA FOR ALB SOUND AND GALE WATCH REST OF AREA THAT 
PERIOD WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT PSBL WITH GOOD MIXING OVER 
WARMER WATERS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WED-THU BUT MAY PERSIST 
IN 15-20 KT RANGE OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SRN WATERS DUE 
TO WARM SEAS SFC TEMPS. WINDS PSBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE SAT WITH 
LOW DEVELOPING TO S AND MOVING NE. 

WW3 USED FOR SEAS WITH SOME MODIFICATION FOR HIGHER WINDS OUTER 
WATERS WED-THU. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
AFTERNOON      FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     AMZ130.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...JBM
MARINE...JBM