FXUS63 KJKL 231129
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
629 AM EST WED DEC 23 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

QUIET AND WARMER WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVER THE OH VLY SLOWLY YIELDS TO A STRENGTHENING LOW THAT IS CATCHING
UP TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH... BRINGING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE CWFA TODAY AND SPREADING TO THE
ENTIRE FA BY THU. THIS SHOULD MELT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW... EVEN ON THE
STUBBORN NORTH FACING SLOPES. WITH THE SNOW PACK GONE THE INCOMING
RAIN SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS.

SHORT TERM DISCUSSION CONTINUES FROM PREVIOUS...

THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

QPF FROM AVAILABLE MODELS REMAINS LESS THAN AN INCH FOR THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND RAIN SHADOWING EFFECT FROM
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PROBABLY MEAN LESS THAN A HALF INCH
OVER THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CUMBERLAND... KENTUCKY AND BIG SANDY
BASINS IN OUR AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD WATER PROBLEMS FROM
THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN COMBINED WITH CONTINUED SNOW MELT FROM OUR
RATHER LARGE HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW PACK... ALTHOUGH RIVERS WILL RUN
HIGH.

THE WIND THREAT ALSO LOOKS MINIMAL AS TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OFF BLACK MOUNTAIN THOUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENT (50-KT PLUS) 850 MB JET PROGGED
AND PERPENDICULAR FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. LOCALIZED ADVISORY
CRITERIA WINDS OR GREATER WILL THUS BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY... BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
BETTER DEFINE THE THREAT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AT LEAST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SLOWER IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE DEEPER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN NAEFS MEAN. NONETHELESS... A
PERIOD OF MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PROGGED WEST TO SOUTHWEST MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY... BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST A 20 POP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS PINWHEELING
SHORTWAVES AROUND UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY BRING A SNOW
SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY WEAKEN/MOVE TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY EVEN HAVE A CHANCE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY WITH A BIT OF A WARM UP EXPECTED.
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS THEN PROGGED TO BEGIN ORGANIZING
TO OUR SOUTHWEST... BUT ITS IMPACTS ON OUR AREA... IF ANY... WILL
LIKELY NOT BE FELT UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR LATER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/...UPDATED

WILL START OUT MVFR OR BELOW VISBYS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AT
KJKL BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT KLOZ/KSME WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR
VIS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF MVFR AROUND SUNRISE. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVER EAST KENTUCKY FROM WEST TO EAST SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT LOWER BELOW 6 K FEET.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM....ABE
AVIATION...SCHOETTMER