FXUS64 KMEG 082335
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009/ 

UPDATED...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAF

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL PROVIDE A RISK OF FLOODING
ACROSS THE CWA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN NRN MS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT ENDING
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TSTMS.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL CREATE WINDY
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAY STILL NEED A WIND
ADVISORY FOR A SMALL AREA LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE COOL AND DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A LOW IN THE GULF MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SWC

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

COLD FRONT NOW JUST WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY ENDED AT JBR...WITH FRONT MOVING THROUGH MEM...MKL...AND
TUP BETWEEN 02-05Z RAIN WILL ALSO COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...TEMPO
CONDITIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED AT MKL AND
TUP...AND VCTS AT MEM. VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
DROP TO 1-2 MILES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MAINLY LIFR AND IFR AT ALL
SITES UNTIL 07-08Z. THEN MEM...JBR AND MKL WILL BECOME
MVFR...CONFIDENT THAT TUP WILL BECOME MVFR LATER...NEAR 12Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 18-26KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE PLAINS STORM LIFTS OUT. WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AFT 12Z WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS. AT ROUGHLY THE SAME
TIME CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR. WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER
22Z.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  37  46  23  43 /  80  10  10  10 
MKL  40  45  22  41 /  80  10  10  10 
JBR  32  40  21  40 /  60  10  10  10 
TUP  49  53  26  44 /  90  10  10  10 

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON 
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE 
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$