FXUS65 KPIH 010958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
258 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER TROF SLIDING SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY AND WILL DRIVE THROUGH
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTH AND EXPECT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH OF THOSE DAYS. SYSTEM SHOULD BE PRETTY
DRY AND HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF
PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED 
CONTINUES AS THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP SWAPPING BACK AND FORTH ON 
SOLUTIONS. NOW THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLDER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND 
WHILE THE GFS IS TRENDING WARMER. THE ECMWF BRINGS A DEEP CLOSED LOW 
INTO THE PAC NW FRI NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS ONLY MOVES AN SHORT WAVE 
THRU. BOTH MODELS AGREE BY SUNDAY THAT THE PAC NW WILL BE COLD...BUT 
THE PATTERNS ARE FAR FROM SIMILAR. IT ONLY GETS WORSE BY MON MORNING 
WITH THE GFS ESTABLISHING A CLOSED LOW OVR THE WA/OR/ID INTERSECTION 
...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF OR NEAR 130W. 
NOT MUCH TO DO HERE EXCEPT CONTINUE THE LOW POPS THRU THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD ALONG WITH COLDER TEMPS (THE ONE THING THE MODELS AGREE ON). 
POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FRI THRU SAT MORNING AS BOTH THE GFS AND THE 
NAM DELAY THE UPPER LOW/TROF. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLDS OVER THE UPPER SNAKE 
HIGHLANDS/UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS 
LOW CLD FIELD TO EXTEND SWWD TO AS FAR AS KPIH...BUT DISSIPATE 
AROUND LATE MORNING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NE TONIGHT 
...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS THRU WED MORNING. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$