FXUS65 KSLC 290402
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
902 PM MST SAT NOV 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS SAME TIME AND PERSIST THROUGH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW THAT FORMED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF THE SPLIT TROF MOVING THROUGH THE WEST IS CENTERED OVER SRN CA
THIS EVE MOVING SOUTH. CONVECTIVE PRECIP DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN UT
DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER DIFLUENT FLOW IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF
THE LOW. THIS PERSISTED INTO THIS EVE AND ELONGATED E-W UNDER
DEFORMATION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE LOW DROPPING 2.3
INCHES OF SNOW AT CEDAR CITY AND .19 WATER IN THE FORM OF SNOW AT
BRYCE CANYON...LIKELY ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES. 

THIS BAND IS WEAKENING AT THIS TIME AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. NEW 00Z
NAM INDICATES A NEW BAND WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE UT BORDER
LATER TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUN. THE 18Z RUN DEPICTED THE
CURRENT BAND FAIRLY WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE 00Z
SOLUTION. WILL STILL LEAVE DECREASING POPS ALONG THE FAR SRN
ZONES FOR THE PERIOD FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUN IN CASE THE
MODEL IS OFF A BIT. 

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE NRN 2/3 OF THE CWA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
BUILDS IN AND A DECENT SURFACE GRADIENT HAS KEPT NORTH WINDS UP IN
MANY LOCATIONS. THESE WINDS HAVE MIXED OUT THE STAGNANT NORTHERN
VALLEYS TO SOME EXTENT AND THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH
THE GAPS IN SWRN UT BUT THIS MAY BE GETTING ENHANCED BY THE
PRECIP TO THE NORTH.

RIDGE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
PASSING SHORT WAVE SENDING A DRY BACK DOOR FRONT INTO THE CWA ON
TUE. 

UPDATED FORECASTS EARLIER TO BETTER ADDRESS THE PRECIP ACROSS SRN
UT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS BUT AT THIS TIME...NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KSLC 
TERMINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS 
EVENING WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TERMINAL EXPECTED 
BETWEEN 0800 AND 1000 UTC.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE 
THAT THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. 

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

WILENSKY/GRAHAM

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)