FXUS62 KCAE 160624
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
124 AM EST WED DEC 16 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AND LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE MIDLANDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S OVER EASTERN SC WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S IN THE
UPSTATE. REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED TOWARD THE COAST AND
WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SHORTLY DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE
PRECIPITATION. WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO ADJUST WORKING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR TO SLOWLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS MORE INTERESTING EVERY DAY. A FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS COMING A
LITTLE BETTER INTO FOCUS IN THAT THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL
ARE SHOWING A GULF COAST LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE EXACT TIMING AND IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE LOW ONCE IT ENTERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HOW DEEP IT
BECOMES. SO IT APPEARS THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THE INTERESTING PART OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BY SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST ALONG A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT
OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE EVENT. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE STORM AND RESULTING TEMPERATURE
PROFILES...WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING WINTER WEATHER IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. NONETHELESS IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE
MUCH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION...AND THEREFORE HAVE CUT MAX TEMPERATURES QUITE A
BIT...INTO THE 40S.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY
DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MID
MORNING AS DRIER AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY IN. VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...07
