FXUS62 KTAE 060704
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
204 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
AFTER A VERY COOL AND DRY START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY. THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...OR AROUND CROSS CITY...MAY BREAK INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
INDICATE THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION MODIFYING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THESE COOL TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE AND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BY
TUESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK PULSES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION WITH SCATTERED/BKN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING OVERHEAD THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EAST AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW RETURN FLOW OFF SHELF WATERS OF THE NWRN
GULF TO RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AS THIS
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND
STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH PW'S INCREASING TO 1.5-1.7 INCHES WEST OF
THE RIVER BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS FORCING AND LIFT INCREASE
OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED H5/H2 TROUGH OVER WRN
CONUS AND A CORRESPONDING BROAD RIDGE OVER ERN CONUS. THE TROUGH
FINALLY SHOWS SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IT WILL BROADEN AND MOVE EWD
THRU FRI BEFORE LIFTING NEWD WITH CONUS FLOW BECOMING ESSENTIALLY
ZONAL. HOWEVER...SRN STREAM REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY ACTIVE WITH SW FLOW
THRU MUCH OF EXTENDED TO SEND ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DOWNSTREAM TO GENERATE SURFACE WAVES LIFTING STALLED FRONT BACK
NORTH AND PUSHING COLD FRONTS INTO SE REGION IN A REPEAT OF RECENT
EL NINO PATTERN.
INITIAL STALLED WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD AS LOW MOVES ACROSS BOUNDARY
TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF TSTMS BEFORE STALLING ACROSS S/CNTRL
GULF/FL LATE THURS. IN ITS WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CONUS
WED AND THEN PASSES BY N OF THE AREA THURS-FRI INITIALLY YIELDING A
MODESTLY DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS AND OFFSHORE FLOW...BUT AS HIGH
MOVES E OF CWA...AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...FLOW
BECOMES ONSHORE THURS/FRI. AT THIS TIME...YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OR NEAR THE TEXAS COAST ALONG
STALLED GULF BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS CWA EARLY
SAT REACHING THE MID-ATLC COAST LATER ON SAT. AHEAD OF THIS STALLED
FRONT LIFTS NWD AS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES LATE
THURS NIGHT FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT APPROACHING NW CWA BY SAT. AGAIN
MAIN UPPER SUPPORT REMAINS N OF CWA. OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR TIMING
ISSUES...THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS PERIOD.
WITH LOW/WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS LOCAL REGION TO COMMENCE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SHARP S-N 30-60 PCT POP GRADIENT TUES NIGHT AND 20-40 N-S
GRADIENT ON WED AND 20-30 PCT POPS WED NIGHT. IN WAKE OF FRONT/
LOW...NIL POPS INTO FRI AFTN...THEN WDLY SCT-LO SCT LATE FRI
INCREASING TO LO-MID SCT ON SAT WITH SECOND LOW/FRONT. AS FAR AS
TEMPS...PERIOD BEGINS WITH DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMING OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF LIFTING WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MIN TEMPS TUES NIGHT 15-18 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO IS LOW 40S)
WITH DROP TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO WED NIGHT. THEN WITH COOL DRY
AIRMASS BUILDING IN...MIN TEMPS AROUND CLIMO THURS NIGHT BEFORE
INCHING UP TO AROUND 8 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF
NEXT WX SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WED IN MID 70S OR WELL ABOVE CLIMO (CLIMO
IN MID 60S). MAX TEMPS DROP TO AROUND CLIMO THURS WITH CLOUDS AHEAD
OF WARM FRONT BEFORE INCHING UP TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN
WARM SECTOR ON SAT AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEAR TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE MARINE
AREA SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 06Z MON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS REST
OF PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A FEW CIRRUS AND LIGHT NE WINDS THRU
DAY. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS REGION AFTER 04Z.
&&
.FIRE WX...DRY AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY BUT NOT AS DRY AS
PREV RUN. USED BLEND OF MET/MAV (WHICH ARE CLOSE) WHICH SHOWS
LOWEST INLAND PANHANDLE RH THIS AFTN IN MID 30S/ SO WILL DROP
INHERITED FIRE WX WATCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FOR MONDAY
WITH NO FIRE WX CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TALLAHASSEE 57 41 67 53 69 / 0 10 10 10 40
PANAMA CITY 57 45 67 56 69 / 0 10 10 10 50
DOTHAN 55 44 66 50 67 / 0 10 20 10 60
ALBANY 56 40 67 47 68 / 0 10 10 10 50
VALDOSTA 57 44 68 51 71 / 0 10 10 10 30
CROSS CITY 62 48 74 53 75 / 0 10 10 10 20
APALACHICOLA 56 45 67 58 69 / 0 10 10 10 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN...
CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...
GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER...
MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...
THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH.
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...COASTAL WALTON...DIXIE...
FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...
JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...
MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GIBBS/BLOCK
