FXUS64 KOHX 020921
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
321 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST HAS PUSHED RAIN WELL AHEAD
INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOW ALSO HAS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON ITS NORTH AND EAST SIDE WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH NOTED IN
THE CROSSVILLE AREA. THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT AS THE LOW
PRESSES NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...THUS THE REASON FOR THE WIND ADVISORY
OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA.

INSTABILITY AND WINDSHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME THUNDER IN THE ERN AREAS. HOWEVER...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST SINCE THE PROBABILITY SEEMS
RATHER LOW.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS LOW IS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WE ARE NOT INCLUDING ANY FROZEN PRECIP ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP AREA FOR TONIGHT.

SGFNT AMOUNTS OF COLD AIR POUR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND THU THROUGH
SAT WITH AFTN HIGH TEMPS DROPPING 34F TO 42F ON SAT. THUS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL GENERATE A LOW IN THE
GULF AND TRACK IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. 
MOISTURE BEING PUSHED INTO THE COLD AIR WILL GENERATE THE POSSIBILITY
OF SNOW FOR THE SE/E AREAS ON SAT.

SFC RIDGE OCCUPIES THE AREA ON SUN(12/6) WITH A DEVELOPING LOW
OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES EWD
AND THE UPSHOT IS ONLY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A MUCH
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON WED WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      52  38  45  29 / 100  40  10  10 
CLARKSVILLE    49  36  43  27 / 100  50  10  10 
CROSSVILLE     52  37  42  28 / 100  50  10  10 
COLUMBIA       53  38  46  30 /  90  30  10  10 
LAWRENCEBURG   54  37  45  30 /  90  30  10  10 
WAVERLY        51  37  43  28 / 100  40  10  10 

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING 
FOR TNZ011-032>034-065-066-077>080.

&&

$$

JLM