FXUS65 KPUB 262206
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
306 PM MST SAT DEC 26 2009

.SHORT TERM...
(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)

NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE 
UPPER LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES 
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT 
OVER COLORADO WITH TIME. RADAR SHOWS WEAKENING RETURNS/SNOW SHOWERS 
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL 
DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING EAST OF A LINE FROM KCOS TO KLHX TO KSPD. 
EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO DIMINISH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ALLOWING FOR 
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES 
DROP BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. 
ELSEWHERE...LINGERING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS 
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO 
SUNDAY. 700MB TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE (+1-2 DEGC) BY TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT MOST PLACES WILL START OUT A BIT COLDER 
SUNDAY MORNING...SO LEFT HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 30S FOR THE 
PLAINS WITH TEENS AND 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. 

THE FLOW OVR THE AREA WEAKENS TONIGHT AND WE SHOULD SEE PCPN CHANCES 
END. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO EXPECT 
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS. CONDITIONS ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL IMPROVE WITH LESS 
WIND SUNDAY. STARK

.LONG TERM...
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR THE CWFA DURING THE LONG TERM INCLUDE 
TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY LOW GRADE POPS AT TIMES AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.

TRANQUIL CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 
AS DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT 12Z SUNDAY PUSHES OFF 
INTO MAINE BY 00Z TUESDAY.  ALSO...UPPER TROUGH MAKES ITS APPEARANCE 
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES BY 00Z TUESDAY.  
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTED MOST AREAS FROM 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY(ALTHOUGH BOTH MINIMUM AND MAXIMUM 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW LATE DECEMBER 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES).  LOW GRADE GRADIENT WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM 
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

INITIAL WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY AND 
THEN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE PUSHING INTO 
MISSOURI BY 12Z THURSDAY.  HAVE CONTINUED GENERALLY LOW GRADE 
POPS...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA TO 
ACCOUNT FOR THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THIS 
TIME-FRAME.  TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING BELOW LATE DECEMBER 
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES SHOULD STILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.  
GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SECTIONS...MAY BE NOTED AT TIMES 
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.    

NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL GENERALLY WEAK UPPER 
DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THIS UPPER FLOW SHOULD THEN BE NOTED 
OVER THE CWFA FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY.  AT THIS 
WRITING...HIGHEST POPS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN WITH 
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WHILE ELSEWHERE GENERALLY NIL TO VERY LOW 
GRADE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.  IN ADDITION...BELOW SEASONAL 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THURSDAY INTO 
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SATURDAYS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY REBOUND TO
NEAR OR EXCEED EARLY JANUARY SEASONAL AVERAGES. FINALLY...GUSTY
GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE NOTED...ESPECIALLY FROM LATER FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KCOS AND KPUB THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KALS AFT 09Z.
FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH 06Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$