FXUS62 KMFL 260855
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENED COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL OF SOUTH FL AND LIES
ACROSS THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD NOT MAKE MORE
THAN A SLOW SAG AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AS IT LOSES ITS PUSH
AND PARALLELS STEERING FLOW. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SKIES
HAVE CLEARED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. SWRLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER N OF THE
FRONT MAY KEEP SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND TODAY...BUT THE RESULT
SHOULD STILL BE A DRY DAY. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY...WITH PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK MID- LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES JUST N OF THE
REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
DISTURBANCE PASSES...BUT FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS DO
NOT REALLY SHOW SUFFICIENT SATURATION BELOW THE MID-LEVELS WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY TO A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS AS
IT SEEMS NOW AS ANOTHER FRONT GETS DRAGGED ACROSS THE REGION.

A BRIEFLY...BUT NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO 
THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG SFC RIDGE 
BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MONDAY NIGHT STILL 
APPEARS TO BE THE COOLEST NIGHT AS 1000-850MB THICKNESSES ARE STILL 
FCST TO DROP TO AROUND 1345M ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD 
SUPPORT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THERE...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE ACROSS 
THE INTERIOR AND 50S ALONG THE COASTS AND METRO AREAS. SOME 
MODERATION WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY 
NIGHT...MOST NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST. INTERIOR AREAS MAY 
STILL DECOUPLE AS THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS E TO THE MID ATLC COAST...BUT 
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISING A SHALLOW BUT MODERATE TO 
STRONG ERLY WIND SURGE ALONG THE E COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAYBE 1-3 DEGREES WARMING ACROSS THE 
INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT MORE ACROSS THE EAST COAST. 

THIS MODERATION TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS A NEW 
DISTURBANCE RIDES OUT OF THE SW CONUS AND IGNITES SFC CYCLOGENESIS 
MOVING NE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THURSDAY...AND RETURN 
FLOW OCCURS AHEAD OF THIS DVLPG SYSTEM. THE GFS/ECMWF HANDLE THE 
SYSTEM SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY...WITH BOTH MODELS TAKING THE SYSTEM 
JUST OFF THE CONUS E COAST BUT WITH THE ECMWF MUCH STRONGER WITH THE 
LOW AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE THE GFS STALLS THE 
FRONT OVER THE REGION FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING IT THROUGH.
REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT A COLDER AIRMASS COULD
FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM TO RING IN THE NEW YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 3FT SWELL AFFECTING
THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST TODAY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT THIS AGAIN SEEMS TO BE IN ERROR AS JUPITER WEBCAM JUST
BEFORE SUNSET YESTERDAY WAS COMPLETELY FLAT. BUOY 41010 IS
REPORTING SWELL BUT THE PERIOD IS ONLY AROUND 9S...SO HAVE KEPT
SWELLS OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW. SHOULD BE FAIRLY BENIGN BOATING
CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 15KTS AND
SEAS GENERALLY 4FT OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS. NWRLY WINDS OF
15-20KTS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE PSBL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY TUESDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...BUT RH'S ARE FCST
TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS DUE TO EXPECTED COOLER
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  55  73  59 / -  10 20 20 
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  76  65 / -  10 20 20 
MIAMI            76  62  76  65 / -  10 20 20 
NAPLES           70  53  72  56 / -  10 20 20 

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WX...STRASSBERG
AVIATION...70/DD