FXUS62 KMLB 261431
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EST SAT DEC 26 2009

.UPDATE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT HAS PRODUCED SOME 
STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA.  MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW 
VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE SO EXPECT THIS LOW CLOUDINESS TO 
DISSIPATE SHORTLY.  CONSIDERABLE CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND 
THE GULF WILL RESULT IN FILTERED SUNSHINE AND WHEN COMBINED WITH 
COOL ADVECTION...TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER OR 
MID 60S.  MORE DIRECT SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO 
REACH TO AROUND 70. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS DECK AROUND FL020 SHOULD START TO BREAK UP DUE 
TO DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER A LITTLE 
PAST 15Z AT A FEW TERMINALS.  REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE VFR 
WITH CEILINGS ABOVE FL120.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD 
BE AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10-15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. SHORT RANGE 
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY 
WITH A GRADUAL VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE NORTH.  ADVISORY FOR SEAS 
OFFSHORE LOOKS MARGINAL AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE GULF 
STREAM. PLAN TO LET IT RIDE UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 4PM AND MAKE LITTLE 
CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN THE 
PENINSULA IN LIEU OF THE LATEST COLD FRONT TODAY. ONE TO THREE HOURS 
OF RH VALUES FROM 35%-40% WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTHWEST 
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON (LAKE...SEMINOLE AND INLAND VOLUSIA 
COUNTIES). ELSEWHERE...RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER ABOVE 
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WIMMER