FXUS63 KGID 221222
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009

.AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. MAJOR WINTER STORM APPROACHES. STRATUS
HAS SET IN AND WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
AND WILL TEND TO LOWER WITH TIME. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP BY
EVENING. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER
MAY BE SLOW TO SATURATE...SO KEPT MORE ON THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
SIDE OF PRECIPITATION RATHER THAN CHANGING OVER TO SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST. VISIBILITY WILL DETERIORATE AS THE
NIGHT DRAWS ON AND MORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES LIKELY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE LATE IN THIS FORECAST AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CST TUE DEC 22 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINTER WEATHER 
AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALREADY THIS 
MORNING. AT THIS TIME THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY REPORTS OF 
PRECIPITATION FALLING. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE 
TROUGH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND AS IT SINKS TO THE 
SOUTH TODAY WINDS WILL TURN TO THE EAST. THERE WILL BE WARM 
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH LEADS TO THE CLOUDS THAT HAVE 
ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE. 
THE DRIZZLE SHOULD BE LIGHT AND PATCHY IN NATURE MOST OF TODAY BUT 
WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. 

TONIGHT THE FIRST ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE EAST WITH GOOD 
WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AS WELL. EXPECT THAT 
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE 
PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND 
TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. THERE IS A 
STRONG WARM LAYER MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST...BUT DEPENDING ON THE 
MODEL THE WARM AIR PUSHES TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IN THE SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION 
IS MOST LIKELY TO BE LIQUID WITH RAIN POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ON 
WEDNESDAY. THE FAR NORTHWEST IS THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE SNOW TONIGHT 
AND WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN...THERE IS A LOT OF POSSIBILITIES. EXPECT 
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. EXPECT MORE 
FREEZING AND FROZEN TO THE NORTHWEST AND MORE LIQUID AND FREEZING TO 
THE SOUTHEAST. TONIGHT SHOULD BE MORE TOWARD THE FROZEN AND 
WEDNESDAY MORE TOWARD LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT. 

FINALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST 
THAT THERE SHOULD BE LESS CONCERN ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT 
THEN THE SNOW AND WINDS BEGIN IN EARNEST AND EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING 
SNOW AS THE WINDS INCREASE. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. 
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST FAR ENOUGH 
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO DIMINISH AND GRADUALLY COME TO 
AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/ 

AVIATION...06Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS HAVE ARRIVED AT KGRI...AND NOW
THAT THEY ARE IN PLACE...THEY SHOULD REMAIN AT KGRI THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO A CONCERN FROM THE START WTIH
SOME SPOTS IN THE LOW CLOUDS FALLING TO AROUND A MILE OR
BELOW...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS SUCH AS KODX AND KLXN HAVE SO FAR
MANAGED TO NOT FALL HARDLY AT ALL. KGRI HAS JUST FALLEN TO AROUND
1SM...AND WILL KEEP THEM AROUND THAT FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL
TRY TO IMPROVE THEM A BIT LATER THIS MORNING WHICH HAS SEEMED TO
BE THE TREND FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANOTHER
ISSUE TO DEAL WITH...AND CONFIDENCE IN WHEN THE DRIZZLE WILL
ARRIVE AT KGRI IS NOT VERY HIGH. FOR NOW OPTED TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE FOREAST UNTIL THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT ARRIVES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ075>077-082>087.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>074.

KS...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HEINLEIN