FXUS62 KMLB 070050
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
750 PM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...A WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS INDICATED AT
TAIL END OF OLD FRONT NEAR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. SOME SHOWERS WERE
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WEAK FEATURE. THE MODELS
GENERALLY MOVE THE WEAK CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE PALM BEACHES/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...DRAWING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND THE MAIN CHANCE FOR COASTAL
SHOWERS SHOULD BE IN THE SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE INCREASES.
THE OTHER WEATHER CONCERN IS LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH FOG CHANCES. THE
MAV MOS IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE STRATUS DEVELOPING...WITH LOW
VISIBILITIES NORTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA. PRESENTLY THERE IS QUITE A
LOT OF STRATOCU CLOUDINESS. THIS SHOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR
FOG SO WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS MENTION OF PATCHY FOG.
MAY NEED TO BUMP UP TEMPS A LITTLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDINESS.
&&
.AVIATION...THE MAIN QUESTION OVERNIGHT IS HOW LOW THE CEILINGS WILL
GO. PRESENTLY THERE IS CONSIDERABLE STRATOCU AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THE MODELS SHOW ONSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE...SO THE STRATOCU MIGHT NOT DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. I ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS SET OF
TAFS SHOWING IFR CEILINGS FOR THE NORTH. ANY BREAK IN THE STRATOCU
COULD LEAD TO IFR VISIBILITIES TOO.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...THE TREND WILL BE FOR WINDS TO EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST AND WEAKENS.
HOWEVER THE GRADIENT MAY STILL SUPPORT NEAR 15 KNOT NORTHEAST/EAST
FLOW EARLY MON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTS OUT OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO
AROUND OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE COAST. WILL FOLLOW LATEST TRENDS...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS...MAY NEED TO EXTEND EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT NORTHWARD FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MON.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
